Thu, Mar 28, 2019·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
New York Islanders 5, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 112 | 120 | 312 | 544 |
| WPG | 218 | 18 | 111 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:13WPGAdam LowryAssists: Brandon Tanev, Nathan Beaulieu · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–1
- P1 6:11WPGAdam LowryAssists: Jacob Trouba, Brandon Tanev · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 10:19NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 3:46WPGBrandon TanevAssists: Nathan Beaulieu, Adam Lowry · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 6:06NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Ryan Pulock, Josh Bailey · Tip-in, 0.19 xG2–3
- P3 6:46WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Jacob Trouba, Blake Wheeler · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 7:49NYIJordan EberleAssists: Ryan Pulock, Adam Pelech · Wrist, 0.33 xG3–4
- P3 18:14NYICasey CizikasAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.31 xG4–4
- P3 18:47NYIJordan EberleGWGAssists: Mathew Barzal, Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:01NYIScott Mayfield: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:37WPGMathieu Perreault: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 5:05WPGTyler Myers: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:27NYIJohnny Boychuk: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:28WPGMathieu Perreault: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:31WPGMathieu Perreault: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:44NYIJosh Bailey: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 13:53NYILeo Komarov: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Lee – Barzal12:14
xG 1.46–0.32 (82%)attempts 24–11goals 3–0
- Bailey – Nelson – Dal Colle12:08
xG 0.70–0.22 (76%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – Beauvillier2:01
xG 0.44–0.02 (95%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Komarov – Kuhnhackl – Beauvillier3:17
xG 0.05–0.00 (97%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Toews10:12
xG 0.56–0.22 (72%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Boychuk – Leddy9:47
xG 0.39–0.13 (76%)attempts 8–7goals 2–0
- Pelech – Pulock14:09
xG 1.02–0.85 (55%)attempts 16–17goals 1–2
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLittle – Lowry – Tanev11:29
xG 1.06–0.93 (53%)attempts 18–11goals 3–2
- Hendricks – Perreault – Copp4:36
xG 0.04–0.11 (24%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Copp2:27
xG 0.06–0.15 (28%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers10:16
xG 0.16–0.49 (24%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBeaulieu – Trouba12:26
xG 0.74–0.57 (56%)attempts 13–8goals 3–1
- Chiarot – Niku10:29
xG 0.23–0.34 (40%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Myers – Chiarot2:06
xG 0.02–0.17 (12%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).