Thu, Mar 28, 2019·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Dallas Stars 3, Edmonton Oilers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 06 | 16 | 18 | 02 | 2 | 322 |
| EDM | 115 | 116 | 08 | 03 | 1 | 242 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:59EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 1:08EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 6:20DALAlexander RadulovPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, Roope Hintz · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 7:47DALMiro HeiskanenAssists: Jason Dickinson, Roope Hintz · Snap, 0.10 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored
- 2. DAL Alexander Radulov stopped
- 3. EDM Leon Draisaitl stopped
- 4. DAL Tyler Seguin scored
- 5. EDM Connor McDavid stopped
- 6. DAL Miro Heiskanen stopped
- 7. EDM Sam Gagner stopped
- 8. DAL John Klingberg stopped
- 9. EDM Alex Chiasson stopped
- 10. DAL Jamie Benn scored
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:56DALRoope Hintz: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:39DALJohn Klingberg: Embellishment2 min
- P1 15:39EDMZack Kassian: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:59EDMJosh Currie: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:27EDMAdam Larsson: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Hintz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Dickinson – Hintz8:36
xG 0.77–0.48 (62%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin2:08
xG 0.12–0.04 (75%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Ritchie – Nichushkin – L'Esperance6:21
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Radulov – Seguin – Janmark10:55
xG 0.17–0.41 (29%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Heiskanen5:15
xG 0.38–0.04 (90%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Lindell2:38
xG 0.32–0.13 (72%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Fedun2:16
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKassian – Draisaitl – McDavid16:29
xG 1.17–0.36 (76%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Chiasson – Nugent-Hopkins – Gambardella13:12
xG 0.29–0.22 (57%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Gagner – Rieder – Cave7:43
xG 0.22–0.21 (51%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Brodziak – Lucic – Currie7:14
xG 0.19–0.28 (40%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Klefbom17:15
xG 1.20–0.57 (68%)attempts 22–11goals 1–1
- Benning – Nurse2:14
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Sekera – Benning12:54
xG 0.24–0.33 (42%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).