Fri, Mar 29, 2019·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Anaheim Ducks 1, Calgary Flames 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 110 | 09 | 03 | 122 |
| CGY | 18 | 218 | 311 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:09ANAAndy WelinskiUnassisted · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 15:32CGYMark GiordanoAssists: Sean Monahan · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 3:37CGYSean MonahanGWGAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–2
- P2 10:07CGYJames NealPPAssists: Sean Monahan, Austin Czarnik · Deflected, 0.32 xG1–3
- P3 8:07CGYDerek RyanAssists: TJ Brodie · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 14:37CGYGarnet HathawayAssists: Travis Hamonic, Derek Ryan · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–5
- P3 19:14CGYSean MonahanAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Noah Hanifin · Slap, 0.08 xG1–6
Penalties (4)
- P1 13:13ANAKiefer Sherwood: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:11CGYTravis Hamonic: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:27ANAMax Jones: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:28ANADaniel Sprong: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ryan won the faceoff against Grant
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Henrique – Sprong6:50
xG 0.48–0.30 (61%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Terry – Steel – Sherwood4:58
xG 0.11–0.03 (79%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Grant – Rowney – Jones8:42
xG 0.08–0.03 (70%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Perry – Henrique – Jones3:58
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Fowler – Welinski16:14
xG 0.68–0.86 (44%)attempts 12–14goals 1–2
- Holzer – Megna14:23
xG 0.23–0.53 (30%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Lindholm – Larsson17:27
xG 0.55–1.00 (36%)attempts 15–27goals 0–2
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk10:37
xG 0.60–0.22 (73%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Hathaway – Mangiapane – Ryan12:15
xG 0.72–0.39 (65%)attempts 12–8goals 2–0
- Neal – Jankowski – Czarnik9:14
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan12:14
xG 0.65–0.51 (56%)attempts 12–15goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Andersson14:09
xG 0.87–0.45 (66%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Brodie – Prout15:28
xG 0.49–0.09 (84%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Hamonic – Hanifin19:36
xG 0.73–0.62 (54%)attempts 20–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).