Fri, Mar 29, 2019·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Minnesota Wild 3, Vegas Golden Knights 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 212 | 115 | 05 | 332 |
| VGK | 010 | 116 | 111 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:12MINGreg PaterynAssists: Nick Seeler, Ryan Donato · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 19:38MINEric StaalPPAssists: Jason Zucker, Jared Spurgeon · Deflected, 0.20 xG2–0
- P2 11:22MINKevin FialaPPGWGAssists: Jason Zucker, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–0
- P2 18:00VGKPaul StastnyAssists: Shea Theodore, Mark Stone · Snap, 0.44 xG3–1
- P3 8:52VGKPaul StastnyAssists: Max Pacioretty, Colin Miller · Snap, 0.16 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 19:18VGKDeryk Engelland: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 1:44VGKJonathan Marchessault: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 10:51VGKBrayden McNabb: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:56MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:24VGKJon Merrill: Holding2 min
- P3 5:29MINKevin Fiala: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Fehr – Foligno – Brown8:58
xG 0.16–0.16 (50%)attempts 3–11goals 1–0
- Staal – Zucker – Read10:56
xG 0.42–0.48 (47%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Rask – Fiala – Donato8:08
xG 0.13–0.28 (31%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Greenway – Eriksson Ek – Kunin11:04
xG 0.13–0.53 (20%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Hunt14:24
xG 0.84–0.26 (76%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Pateryn – Brodin2:12
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Pateryn – Seeler12:06
xG 0.19–0.38 (34%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Pacioretty – Stone12:38
xG 0.77–0.13 (86%)attempts 18–5goals 1–0
- Eakin – Carpenter – Tuch3:13
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Reaves – Carrier – Nosek2:02
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Reaves – Carrier – Carpenter5:16
xG 0.04–0.18 (19%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Miller15:02
xG 0.76–0.27 (74%)attempts 22–10goals 1–0
- Merrill – Theodore3:46
xG 0.29–0.12 (71%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Engelland – Schmidt12:57
xG 0.38–0.48 (44%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).