Sat, Mar 30, 2019·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 18 | 07 | 117 | 232 |
| CAR | 213 | 010 | 39 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:05PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Corban Knight, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 13:35CARTeuvo TeravainenPPAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Justin Williams · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–1
- P1 13:56CARDougie HamiltonAssists: Jordan Staal, Brock McGinn · Snap, 0.30 xG1–2
- P3 11:57CARJustin FaulkPPGWGAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Sebastian Aho · Slap, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 13:12PHIOskar LindblomPPAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Travis Sanheim · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–3
- P3 18:05CARJaccob SlavinENAssists: Brett Pesce, Petr Mrazek · Snap, 0.41 xG2–4
- P3 19:41CARBrock McGinnENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.46 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:25PHIRadko Gudas: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 15:19CARJustin Williams: Interference2 min
- P3 11:03PHIScott Laughton: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:57PHISean Couturier: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:49CARJordan Staal: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 16:30CARJustin Williams: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Konecny won the faceoff against Wallmark
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestKnight – Varone – Raffl2:48
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Voracek – Couturier – Lindblom7:00
xG 0.63–0.46 (58%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Couturier2:06
xG 0.15–0.20 (43%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Patrick5:49
xG 0.08–0.18 (32%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Myers3:15
xG 0.28–0.15 (65%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Provorov – Myers2:23
xG 0.03–0.03 (44%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Gudas – Hagg12:22
xG 0.82–0.88 (48%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Niederreiter – Aho11:21
xG 1.16–0.32 (79%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Ferland – Martinook – Wallmark11:17
xG 0.72–0.15 (83%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- McKegg – McGinn – Foegele6:55
xG 0.32–0.30 (52%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Staal – Teravainen – Svechnikov13:08
xG 0.52–0.64 (45%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Slavin17:19
xG 1.79–0.24 (88%)attempts 21–8goals 1–0
- de Haan – van Riemsdyk14:47
xG 0.87–0.65 (57%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
- Faulk – Pesce17:25
xG 0.70–0.93 (43%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).