Sat, Mar 30, 2019·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Columbus Blue Jackets 5, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 37 | 215 | 010 | 532 |
| NSH | 18 | 19 | 08 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:50CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Artemi Panarin, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 8:50NSHViktor ArvidssonSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 15:58CBJDavid SavardAssists: Artemi Panarin, Markus Nutivaara · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
- P1 19:57CBJOliver BjorkstrandGWGAssists: Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 12:14NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–2
- P2 13:28CBJBoone JennerAssists: Dean Kukan · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–2
- P2 15:46CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Matt Duchene, Artemi Panarin · Wrist, 0.22 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:58NSHDan Hamhuis: Holding2 min
- P1 16:56CBJScott Harrington: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:24NSHViktor Arvidsson: Interference2 min
- P3 1:05NSHP.K. Subban: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:37NSHFilip Forsberg: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:49CBJBoone Jenner: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 15:13NSHP.K. Subban: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P3 18:47NSHP.K. Subban: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bonino won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestAtkinson – Duchene – Panarin11:34
xG 0.60–0.10 (86%)attempts 13–5goals 2–0
- Jenner – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg8:07
xG 0.51–0.14 (78%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Dubinsky – Foligno – Nash11:39
xG 0.42–0.10 (80%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Dzingel – Anderson – Dubois8:39
xG 0.34–0.08 (81%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Werenski15:30
xG 0.98–0.09 (92%)attempts 20–8goals 2–0
- Harrington – Kukan11:02
xG 0.60–0.20 (75%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Savard – Nutivaara17:20
xG 0.38–0.60 (39%)attempts 10–15goals 1–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson9:45
xG 0.28–0.22 (56%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Boyle – Simmonds – Gaudreau7:42
xG 0.09–0.24 (27%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Bonino – Smith – Jarnkrok9:24
xG 0.05–0.28 (16%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Turris – Granlund – Sissons9:42
xG 0.11–0.73 (13%)attempts 5–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEllis – Ekholm2:02
xG 0.18–0.09 (68%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Josi – Ellis14:23
xG 0.25–0.37 (41%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
- Hamhuis – Fabbro11:42
xG 0.14–0.36 (28%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).