Sat, Mar 30, 2019·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Vegas Golden Knights 3, San Jose Sharks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 110 | 18 | 18 | 00 | 326 |
| SJS | 012 | 113 | 28 | 11 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:54VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Reilly Smith · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 0:58SJSTomas HertlAssists: Joonas Donskoi, Timo Meier · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 5:30VGKCody EakinAssists: Deryk Engelland, Ryan Carpenter · Backhand, 0.20 xG2–1
- P3 7:22SJSEvander KaneUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 11:26SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicAssists: Logan Couture · Slap, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 12:04VGKShea TheodoreAssists: William Karlsson · Slap, 0.04 xG3–3
- OT 0:22SJSBrent BurnsPPGWGAssists: Logan Couture, Kevin Labanc · Slap, 0.11 xG3–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 5:35SJSMarcus Sorensen: Interference2 min
- P1 5:35VGKColin Miller: Embellishment2 min
- P1 15:20SJSJoe Thornton: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:20VGKRyan Reaves: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:20VGKRyan Reaves: Misconduct10 min
- P1 17:02VGKShea Theodore: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:01SJSBarclay Goodrow: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:01VGKWilliam Carrier: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:01SJSBrenden Dillon: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:19VGKCody Eakin: Holding2 min
- P2 0:00SJSLogan Couture: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:10SJSTimo Meier: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:10VGKWilliam Carrier: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:05VGKColin Miller: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- Zykov – Nosek – Tuch8:47
xG 0.47–0.45 (51%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Reaves – Carrier – Carpenter9:00
xG 0.20–0.20 (49%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault11:13
xG 0.51–0.76 (40%)attempts 12–10goals 2–1
- Pacioretty – Eakin – Stone11:14
xG 0.17–0.53 (24%)attempts 1–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Schmidt14:39
xG 0.70–0.61 (53%)attempts 10–16goals 1–2
- Merrill – Miller11:54
xG 0.35–0.40 (47%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Holden – Theodore13:04
xG 0.33–0.90 (27%)attempts 9–12goals 2–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Nyquist – Meier7:13
xG 0.26–0.15 (64%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Thornton – Sorensen – Labanc9:34
xG 0.50–0.45 (52%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Haley – Goodrow – Gambrell5:04
xG 0.04–0.00 (95%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Kane – Donskoi – Hertl7:01
xG 0.14–0.14 (50%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Dillon12:05
xG 1.02–0.16 (86%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Burns – Ryan11:18
xG 0.51–0.35 (59%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Heed10:39
xG 0.19–0.41 (32%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).