Sun, Mar 31, 2019·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New York Rangers 3, Philadelphia Flyers 0
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 29 | 06 | 110 | 325 |
| PHI | 07 | 011 | 011 | 029 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:25NYRPavel BuchnevichGWGAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 19:57NYRRyan StromeAssists: Brett Howden, Brendan Smith · Snap, 0.08 xG2–0
- P3 7:39NYRBrady SkjeiAssists: Ryan Strome, Brett Howden · Snap, 0.03 xG3–0
Penalties (6)
- P2 2:25NYRBrendan Smith: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:27NYRBrendan Smith: Interference2 min
- P2 8:17PHIMichael Raffl: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:57NYRBrendan Smith: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:01NYRBrendan Smith: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:29PHITravis Sanheim: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich8:47
xG 0.43–0.08 (84%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Nieves – Lettieri – Andersson6:41
xG 0.22–0.08 (73%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Vesey – Chytil8:40
xG 0.04–0.51 (8%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Staal – DeAngelo11:02
xG 0.54–0.52 (51%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Claesson – Pionk6:54
xG 0.14–0.16 (46%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Skjei13:34
xG 0.24–0.27 (47%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Couturier4:06
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Laughton – Hartman8:50
xG 0.62–0.54 (54%)attempts 7–13goals 0–2
- Lindblom – Konecny – Patrick7:42
xG 0.17–0.15 (52%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Knight – Varone – Raffl6:30
xG 0.08–0.20 (29%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Hagg9:31
xG 0.42–0.28 (60%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Provorov17:35
xG 0.45–0.44 (50%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
- Sanheim – Myers15:03
xG 0.35–0.46 (43%)attempts 17–8goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).