Sun, Mar 31, 2019·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Calgary Flames 5, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 311 | 114 | 13 | 528 |
| SJS | 16 | 03 | 26 | 315 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:01SJSTimo MeierAssists: Joonas Donskoi, Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 14:58CGYSean MonahanAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 15:29CGYMark JankowskiAssists: James Neal, Austin Czarnik · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P1 16:13CGYDalton ProutAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Garnet Hathaway · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–1
- P2 7:27CGYMikael BacklundGWGAssists: Noah Hanifin, Johnny Gaudreau · Deflected, 0.13 xG4–1
- P3 5:23SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Timo Meier, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–2
- P3 8:25CGYMichael FrolikAssists: Mark Giordano, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–2
- P3 16:34SJSKevin LabancAssists: Tim Heed, Joakim Ryan · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:07SJSLogan Couture: Interference2 min
- P2 9:15SJSDylan Gambrell: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:36SJSDylan Gambrell: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:09CGYMark Giordano: Holding2 min
- P3 2:01CGYSean Monahan: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:19SJSJustin Braun: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:05SJSJoakim Ryan: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:37SJSTimo Meier: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:37SJSMicheal Haley: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk10:01
xG 0.96–0.33 (75%)attempts 16–15goals 2–1
- Hathaway – Mangiapane – Ryan8:47
xG 0.32–0.03 (91%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan8:44
xG 0.29–0.05 (84%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Neal – Jankowski – Czarnik6:56
xG 0.17–0.24 (42%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Andersson15:01
xG 0.95–0.27 (78%)attempts 18–17goals 3–0
- Brodie – Prout8:34
xG 0.56–0.25 (69%)attempts 11–8goals 1–3
- Hamonic – Hanifin15:05
xG 0.42–0.22 (66%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHaley – Goodrow – Gambrell5:16
xG 0.16–0.06 (71%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Thornton – Sorensen – Labanc11:11
xG 0.26–0.38 (41%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Nyquist – Kane – Hertl8:18
xG 0.04–0.37 (10%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Couture – Donskoi – Meier7:26
xG 0.04–0.65 (5%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Heed8:39
xG 0.43–0.32 (57%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Burns – Vlasic3:09
xG 0.09–0.02 (83%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Burns – Dillon3:02
xG 0.01–0.01 (43%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).