Mon, Apr 1, 2019·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Washington Capitals 3, Florida Panthers 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 05 | 014 | 311 | 330 |
| FLA | 114 | 310 | 110 | 534 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:48FLAFrank VatranoAssists: Colton Sceviour, Henrik Borgstrom · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 3:34FLAJonathan HuberdeauUnassisted · Snap, 0.20 xG0–2
- P2 12:01FLAVincent TrocheckSHAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Mike Matheson · Snap, 0.10 xG0–3
- P2 17:57FLATroy BrouwerGWGAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Dryden Hunt · Snap, 0.20 xG0–4
- P3 10:55WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: John Carlson · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–4
- P3 16:25WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: T.J. Oshie, Alex Ovechkin · Slap, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 17:39WSHJakub VranaAssists: T.J. Oshie, Matt Niskanen · Slap, 0.34 xG3–4
- P3 19:33FLAVincent TrocheckENAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Aleksander Barkov · Slap, 0.61 xG3–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 16:30WSHNicklas Backstrom: Holding2 min
- P2 11:48FLAFrank Vatrano: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 0:41WSHTom Wilson: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:45FLAVincent Trocheck: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Oshie – Backstrom2:12
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Vrana3:32
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Eller – Connolly4:07
xG 0.24–0.20 (54%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Eller – Connolly – Vrana4:06
xG 0.16–0.17 (49%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Orlov13:46
xG 0.62–0.33 (65%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Carlson – Djoos11:34
xG 0.56–0.58 (49%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Carlson – Orlov2:27
xG 0.10–0.23 (30%)attempts 2–2goals 1–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSceviour – Vatrano – Borgstrom8:47
xG 0.39–0.11 (79%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Hoffman – Trocheck – Hawryluk11:14
xG 0.59–0.36 (62%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov10:15
xG 0.50–0.57 (47%)attempts 6–13goals 1–1
- Brouwer – Sheahan – Hunt10:10
xG 0.04–0.22 (14%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Brown14:37
xG 0.82–0.37 (69%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Yandle – Weegar16:30
xG 0.77–0.60 (56%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Matheson – Ekblad15:29
xG 0.48–0.57 (46%)attempts 7–16goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).