Mon, Apr 1, 2019·Prudential Center, Newark
New York Rangers 2, New Jersey Devils 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 117 | 17 | 08 | 232 |
| NJD | 217 | 010 | 214 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:54NJDMiles WoodAssists: Connor Carrick, Mirco Mueller · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 14:34NJDTravis ZajacPPAssists: Damon Severson, Nico Hischier · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–2
- P1 18:40NYRBrett HowdenAssists: Connor Brickley, Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 16:36NYRFilip ChytilPPAssists: Vinni Lettieri, Tony DeAngelo · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–2
- P3 15:50NJDConnor CarrickGWGAssists: Drew Stafford, Michael McLeod · Snap, 0.19 xG2–3
- P3 18:51NJDJoey AndersonENAssists: Kenny Agostino, Travis Zajac · Backhand, 0.73 xG2–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 13:56NYRTony DeAngelo: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:32NYRKevin Shattenkirk: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:21NYRTony DeAngelo: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:21NJDNathan Bastian: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:21NYRBrendan Lemieux: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:21NYRBrendan Lemieux: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:21NJDKevin Rooney: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:02NJDAndy Greene: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 16:43NYRBrendan Lemieux: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:43NJDMiles Wood: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:23NJDBlake Coleman: Interference2 min
- P2 17:23NJDBlake Coleman: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:23NYRLias Andersson: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:25NYRBrett Howden: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestBrickley – Lemieux – Howden10:14
xG 0.83–0.57 (59%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Namestnikov – Vesey – Chytil8:01
xG 0.54–0.47 (54%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Kreider – Strome – Zibanejad11:17
xG 0.40–0.68 (37%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
- Nieves – Lettieri – Andersson8:11
xG 0.34–0.68 (33%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – DeAngelo10:49
xG 0.93–0.43 (69%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Claesson – DeAngelo3:39
xG 0.63–0.19 (77%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Skjei14:26
xG 0.69–0.69 (50%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestNoesen – Rooney – Bastian7:53
xG 0.92–0.04 (96%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Agostino – Coleman – Hischier9:13
xG 0.32–0.47 (41%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Zajac – Wood – Anderson8:39
xG 0.40–0.57 (41%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Stafford – Zacha – McLeod11:16
xG 0.83–1.03 (45%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarrick – Mueller13:20
xG 0.82–0.66 (56%)attempts 12–13goals 2–1
- Severson – Carrick2:36
xG 0.19–0.15 (56%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Greene – Severson14:17
xG 0.94–0.99 (49%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).