Mon, Apr 1, 2019·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Colorado Avalanche 2, St. Louis Blues 3 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 02 | 010 | 211 | 03 | 0 | 226 |
| STL | 115 | 03 | 17 | 02 | 1 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:07STLJaden SchwartzAssists: Oskar Sundqvist, David Perron · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P3 0:14STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Brayden Schenn · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–2
- P3 6:30COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Patrik Nemeth, Carl Soderberg · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 19:13COLAlexander KerfootAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. STL Tyler Bozak stopped
- 2. COL Nathan MacKinnon stopped
- 3. STL Ryan O'Reilly scored
- 4. COL Gabriel Landeskog stopped
- 5. STL Vladimir Tarasenko stopped
- 6. COL Sven Andrighetto stopped
Penalties (2)
- P1 2:25COLNikita Zadorov: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:45STLRobert Thomas: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCalvert – Nieto – Jost6:51
xG 0.46–0.13 (78%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Soderberg – Wilson – Landeskog8:23
xG 0.34–0.28 (55%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Brassard – Bourque – Andrighetto6:08
xG 0.08–0.11 (42%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Compher – MacKinnon6:37
xG 0.05–0.36 (12%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Zadorov11:57
xG 0.54–0.27 (66%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Barrie – Zadorov7:05
xG 0.37–0.25 (60%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Cole – Nemeth2:36
xG 0.13–0.08 (61%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Schenn – Tarasenko13:34
xG 0.87–0.36 (71%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
- Steen – Sanford – Barbashev9:11
xG 0.28–0.34 (46%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Maroon – Bozak – Thomas9:58
xG 0.29–0.36 (44%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Perron – Schwartz – Sundqvist12:50
xG 0.27–0.65 (29%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Parayko17:27
xG 0.70–0.44 (62%)attempts 15–8goals 1–1
- Gunnarsson – Bortuzzo10:52
xG 0.27–0.17 (61%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Pietrangelo – Dunn17:10
xG 0.52–0.73 (41%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).