Mon, Apr 1, 2019·United Center, Chicago
Winnipeg Jets 4, Chicago Blackhawks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 29 | 114 | 09 | 16 | 438 |
| CHI | 112 | 17 | 17 | 02 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:25CHIJonathan ToewsPPAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Dylan Strome · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 10:49WPGAdam LowryAssists: Brandon Tanev, Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 19:26WPGJack RoslovicUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 5:11WPGJack RoslovicAssists: Andrew Copp, Mathieu Perreault · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 6:23CHIDylan StromeAssists: Drake Caggiula, Erik Gustafsson · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 17:40CHIDylan StromeAssists: Jonathan Toews, Erik Gustafsson · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–3
- OT 3:38WPGKevin HayesGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.25 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:29WPGMathieu Perreault: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 12:13CHIDuncan Keith: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:40CHIJonathan Toews: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P2 0:50CHIErik Gustafsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 2:13WPGPatrik Laine: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:40CHIGustav Forsling: Holding2 min
- P2 18:36WPGBlake Wheeler: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:23CHIErik Gustafsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:47WPGDustin Byfuglien: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:47CHIDrake Caggiula: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestPerreault – Copp – Roslovic7:56
xG 0.63–0.03 (95%)attempts 12–5goals 2–0
- Little – Lowry – Tanev7:46
xG 0.29–0.35 (45%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Connor12:55
xG 0.26–0.44 (37%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Hayes – Ehlers – Laine8:27
xG 0.29–0.71 (29%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestByfuglien – Chiarot16:35
xG 1.19–0.40 (75%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Myers – Trouba2:03
xG 0.02–0.01 (61%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Beaulieu – Trouba11:25
xG 0.28–0.52 (35%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKruger – Hayden – Kahun4:55
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Toews – Kane – Caggiula13:56
xG 0.55–0.33 (63%)attempts 13–8goals 0–2
- Anisimov – Saad – Sikura10:09
xG 0.40–0.49 (45%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Perlini – Strome – DeBrincat8:44
xG 0.10–0.58 (14%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Seabrook – Forsling8:55
xG 0.50–0.55 (48%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
- Keith – Gustafsson16:53
xG 0.42–0.53 (44%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Murphy – Dahlstrom15:36
xG 0.35–0.48 (42%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).