Tue, Apr 2, 2019·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Nashville Predators 3, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 18 | 117 | 110 | 335 |
| BUF | 17 | 112 | 09 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:49NSHCraig SmithAssists: P.K. Subban, Kyle Turris · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 16:04BUFKyle OkposoAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 0:44NSHP.K. SubbanUnassisted · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 19:55BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Brandon Montour, Evan Rodrigues · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–2
- P3 6:32NSHRyan JohansenGWGAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Roman Josi · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 11:33BUFBrandon Montour: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:40NSHRyan Johansen: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:22NSHMattias Ekholm: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:22NSHMattias Ekholm: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Rodrigues
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestTurris – Smith – Granlund12:39
xG 0.91–0.46 (66%)attempts 18–15goals 1–0
- Boyle – Simmonds – Jarnkrok7:35
xG 0.35–0.09 (79%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson11:59
xG 0.71–0.47 (60%)attempts 20–13goals 1–0
- Bonino – Watson – Sissons9:51
xG 0.17–0.16 (52%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Fabbro8:45
xG 0.56–0.14 (79%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Josi – Ekholm2:00
xG 0.18–0.03 (86%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Subban – Ekholm18:26
xG 0.58–0.49 (54%)attempts 24–16goals 2–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Skinner – Rodrigues9:37
xG 0.47–0.19 (71%)attempts 10–12goals 2–1
- Sheary – Nylander – Mittelstadt8:21
xG 0.33–0.33 (50%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Reinhart – Olofsson – Eichel15:53
xG 0.43–0.61 (41%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Pominville – Larsson – Wilson8:41
xG 0.19–0.99 (16%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Nelson – Pilut13:04
xG 0.31–0.32 (49%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- McCabe – Montour15:18
xG 0.73–0.81 (47%)attempts 17–20goals 1–0
- Ristolainen – Dahlin16:53
xG 0.34–0.99 (25%)attempts 11–26goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).