Tue, Apr 2, 2019·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Boston Bruins 6, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 211 | 213 | 24 | 628 |
| CBJ | 08 | 09 | 217 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:58BOSJake DeBruskAssists: David Krejci, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 17:27BOSMarcus JohanssonAssists: Charlie Coyle, Chris Wagner · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 15:14BOSBrad MarchandGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–0
- P2 16:00BOSJake DeBruskAssists: Karson Kuhlman, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–0
- P3 0:34BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.02 xG5–0
- P3 5:51CBJOliver BjorkstrandPPAssists: Seth Jones, Josh Anderson · Slap, 0.05 xG5–1
- P3 9:14CBJMatt DuchenePPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Cam Atkinson · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–2
- P3 10:28BOSKarson KuhlmanAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.13 xG6–2
Penalties (4)
- P2 9:59BOSKevan Miller: Boarding2 min
- P2 10:12CBJAlexander Wennberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:13BOSBrad Marchand: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 6:24BOSCharlie McAvoy: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – DeBrusk – Kuhlman11:36
xG 1.00–0.15 (87%)attempts 15–6goals 3–0
- Johansson – Coyle – Wagner12:51
xG 0.25–0.31 (44%)attempts 5–16goals 1–0
- Backes – Nordstrom – Acciari9:17
xG 0.07–0.34 (16%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak12:06
xG 0.05–0.46 (9%)attempts 3–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKrug – Carlo12:55
xG 0.66–0.20 (77%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0
- Grzelcyk – Carlo2:10
xG 0.03–0.05 (37%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Chara – McAvoy16:43
xG 0.67–0.84 (44%)attempts 14–19goals 2–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Foligno – Nash12:54
xG 0.45–0.17 (73%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Dzingel – Anderson – Dubois11:44
xG 0.32–0.14 (69%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Jenner – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg10:08
xG 0.65–0.49 (57%)attempts 15–6goals 0–2
- Atkinson – Duchene – Panarin12:58
xG 0.52–0.37 (58%)attempts 15–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Werenski20:33
xG 0.70–0.58 (55%)attempts 22–13goals 0–2
- Harrington – Kukan12:43
xG 0.40–0.43 (48%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Savard – Nutivaara17:15
xG 0.48–0.76 (39%)attempts 15–12goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).