Tue, Apr 2, 2019·Centre Bell, Montreal
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Montréal Canadiens 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 17 | 111 | 06 | 224 |
| MTL | 119 | 116 | 210 | 445 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:28TBLSteven StamkosUnassisted · Backhand, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 12:23MTLNate ThompsonAssists: Paul Byron, Jordie Benn · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 4:18TBLCedric PaquetteAssists: Adam Erne, Erik Cernak · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 7:32MTLJoel ArmiaAssists: Tomas Tatar, Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 7:47MTLArtturi LehkonenGWGAssists: Victor Mete, Andrew Shaw · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 10:08MTLMax DomiAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Jordie Benn · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 9:58TBLMikhail Sergachev: Interference2 min
- P2 13:39TBLBrayden Point: Holding2 min
- P3 17:05MTLTomas Tatar: Holding2 min
- P3 17:05TBLErik Cernak: Embellishment2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Weal won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Palat – Miller2:03
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Miller – Paquette – Erne6:31
xG 0.43–0.31 (58%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Johnson – Joseph2:53
xG 0.14–0.07 (65%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Killorn – Palat – Cirelli3:30
xG 0.14–0.10 (59%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Sergachev15:51
xG 0.51–0.38 (57%)attempts 8–21goals 0–0
- Coburn – Stralman2:42
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Stralman – McDonagh2:04
xG 0.12–0.21 (36%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Gallagher – Danault11:43
xG 1.15–0.18 (87%)attempts 23–10goals 0–0
- Shaw – Lehkonen – Domi12:13
xG 0.70–0.35 (67%)attempts 19–7goals 2–1
- Thompson – Byron – Kotkaniemi8:54
xG 0.51–0.28 (64%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Weal – Armia – Drouin10:52
xG 0.46–0.81 (36%)attempts 12–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Kulak16:31
xG 1.56–0.27 (85%)attempts 37–11goals 0–0
- Weber – Mete15:53
xG 0.79–0.83 (49%)attempts 21–18goals 1–0
- Benn – Folin11:47
xG 0.49–0.69 (41%)attempts 12–13goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).