Tue, Apr 2, 2019·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Dallas Stars 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 09 | 215 | 010 | 234 |
| DAL | 25 | 28 | 217 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:34DALJason DickinsonAssists: Tyler Seguin, Alexander Radulov · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 4:14DALEsa LindellPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Alexander Radulov · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 1:13PHIOskar LindblomAssists: Nolan Patrick, Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 11:33PHIShayne GostisbeherePPAssists: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 16:39DALAlexander RadulovPPGWGAssists: Tyler Seguin, John Klingberg · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 18:40DALTyler PitlickAssists: Roope Hintz, Esa Lindell · Snap, 0.24 xG2–4
- P3 9:33DALBlake ComeauAssists: Radek Faksa, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–5
- P3 9:43DALAlexander RadulovAssists: Jason Dickinson · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:50PHISamuel Morin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:12PHITravis Sanheim: Holding2 min
- P2 11:11DALRadek Faksa: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:02PHINolan Patrick: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 16:56DALRoman Polak: Elbowing2 min
- P2 17:57PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:16PHITravis Konecny: Abuse of officials2 min
- P3 4:15PHIRyan Hartman: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:38DALMattias Janmark: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:01DALAlexander Radulov: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Hintz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – van Riemsdyk – Couturier8:26
xG 0.63–0.03 (96%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
- Lindblom – Konecny – Patrick8:39
xG 0.37–0.20 (65%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Voracek – Hartman – Patrick2:11
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Knight – Raffl – Bailey4:10
xG 0.02–0.14 (12%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Provorov16:08
xG 0.74–0.52 (59%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
- Gostisbehere – Hagg11:36
xG 0.60–0.48 (56%)attempts 11–9goals 0–2
- Gostisbehere – Myers2:02
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Zuccarello – Hintz6:42
xG 0.34–0.02 (94%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Spezza – Pitlick – Janmark6:31
xG 0.32–0.05 (87%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Radulov – Seguin – Dickinson5:26
xG 0.29–0.31 (48%)attempts 4–6goals 2–1
- Comeau – Cogliano – Faksa8:30
xG 0.16–0.49 (25%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Heiskanen11:58
xG 0.76–0.48 (61%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
- Lovejoy – Fedun10:33
xG 0.37–0.32 (54%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Polak – Lindell2:17
xG 0.05–0.08 (38%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).