Tue, Apr 2, 2019·Pepsi Center, Denver
Edmonton Oilers 2, Colorado Avalanche 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 210 | 07 | 012 | 229 |
| COL | 08 | 415 | 26 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:20EDMMilan LucicAssists: Matt Benning, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 13:01EDMDarnell NurseAssists: Sam Gagner, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 4:56COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 5:56COLTyson BarrieAssists: Nikita Zadorov · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 7:43COLAlexander KerfootGWGAssists: Matt Nieto, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P2 12:04COLColin WilsonAssists: Matt Calvert, Ian Cole · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 7:30COLAlexander KerfootAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–5
- P3 15:07COLSven AndrighettoAssists: Tyson Jost, Gabriel Bourque · Snap, 0.16 xG2–6
Penalties (4)
- P1 5:08COLTyson Barrie: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:38EDMKris Russell: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:28EDMBrad Malone: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:31EDMBrad Malone: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Soderberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Malone – Cave – Currie2:40
xG 0.04–0.01 (81%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Malone – Rattie – Currie3:50
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Rieder – Cave2:57
xG 0.04–0.03 (57%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Gagner – Rieder – Cave2:25
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Klefbom15:19
xG 0.78–0.56 (59%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Klefbom – Benning2:53
xG 0.11–0.01 (93%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Sekera – Benning13:04
xG 0.22–0.42 (34%)attempts 8–9goals 1–2
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – Kerfoot – MacKinnon12:58
xG 1.04–0.23 (82%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Bourque – Andrighetto – Jost4:27
xG 0.22–0.14 (62%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Brassard – Calvert – Nieto6:34
xG 0.07–0.04 (62%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Brassard – Nieto – Andrighetto3:23
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Zadorov18:33
xG 1.56–0.40 (79%)attempts 24–14goals 3–0
- Johnson – Girard14:26
xG 0.22–0.21 (51%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Cole – Nemeth13:05
xG 0.18–0.37 (32%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).