Thu, Apr 4, 2019·BB&T Center, Sunrise
New York Islanders 2, Florida Panthers 1 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 017 | 18 | 07 | 04 | 1 | 236 |
| FLA | 04 | 012 | 111 | 03 | 0 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:50NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Michael Dal Colle, Josh Bailey · Slap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P3 12:45FLAJonathan HuberdeauPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Samuel Montembeault · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau stopped
- 2. NYI Jordan Eberle stopped
- 3. FLA Aleksander Barkov stopped
- 4. NYI Mathew Barzal stopped
- 5. FLA Frank Vatrano stopped
- 6. NYI Josh Bailey stopped
- 7. FLA Vincent Trocheck stopped
- 8. NYI Brock Nelson scored
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:48FLAEvgenii Dadonov: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:57FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Holding2 min
- P2 12:54NYIThomas Hickey: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:50FLAMark Pysyk: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:44NYIThomas Hickey: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Sheahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Kuhnhackl – Beauvillier6:12
xG 0.52–0.11 (83%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas13:11
xG 0.42–0.10 (80%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Bailey – Nelson – Dal Colle11:30
xG 0.48–0.31 (61%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
- Eberle – Lee – Barzal11:58
xG 0.39–0.37 (51%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Toews12:42
xG 1.19–0.10 (92%)attempts 21–7goals 0–0
- Hickey – Leddy17:53
xG 0.84–0.45 (65%)attempts 19–16goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock17:37
xG 0.56–0.37 (60%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Hoffman – Trocheck – Hawryluk4:20
xG 0.10–0.07 (57%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov14:03
xG 0.53–0.60 (47%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Sceviour – Sheahan4:59
xG 0.02–0.14 (11%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Sheahan – Hunt4:58
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Matheson – Ekblad16:18
xG 0.26–0.73 (26%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Brown14:21
xG 0.38–0.88 (30%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Yandle – Weegar15:44
xG 0.31–0.88 (26%)attempts 16–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).