Thu, Apr 4, 2019·Pepsi Center, Denver
Winnipeg Jets 2, Colorado Avalanche 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 219 | 08 | 08 | 01 | 236 |
| COL | 014 | 110 | 113 | 11 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:12WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Kyle Connor, Dustin Byfuglien · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–0
- P1 17:50WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Kevin Hayes, Jacob Trouba · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–0
- P2 5:17COLTyson BarrieAssists: Nikita Zadorov, Colin Wilson · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P3 10:35COLCarl SoderbergAssists: Tyson Jost, Samuel Girard · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–2
- OT 1:49COLErik JohnsonGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:41WPGBen Chiarot: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:22COLGabriel Landeskog: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:17WPGMathieu Perreault: Delaying game bench2 min
- P2 11:55COLAlexander Kerfoot: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:19WPGTyler Myers: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:28WPGKyle Connor: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:34COLSven Andrighetto: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Connor13:56
xG 1.24–0.71 (64%)attempts 22–18goals 1–1
- Perreault – Hayes – Ehlers6:37
xG 0.36–0.16 (69%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Lowry – Roslovic – Lindholm5:55
xG 0.27–0.22 (55%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Little – Copp – Laine9:44
xG 0.17–0.44 (28%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBeaulieu – Trouba11:17
xG 0.49–0.21 (70%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Myers – Kulikov13:21
xG 0.30–0.48 (38%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Chiarot17:00
xG 0.39–0.86 (31%)attempts 17–24goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Calvert – Nieto – MacKinnon3:46
xG 0.06–0.06 (48%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Brassard – Calvert – Nieto5:42
xG 0.06–0.07 (47%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Landeskog – Kerfoot – MacKinnon12:03
xG 0.41–0.45 (48%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Wilson – Compher9:00
xG 0.16–0.43 (28%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Girard11:19
xG 0.46–0.30 (60%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Cole – Girard2:32
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Barrie – Zadorov15:33
xG 0.55–0.70 (44%)attempts 20–20goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).