Fri, Apr 5, 2019·United Center, Chicago
Dallas Stars 1, Chicago Blackhawks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 06 | 014 | 115 | 135 |
| CHI | 19 | 314 | 29 | 632 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:45CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Drake Caggiula, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 11:11CHIDominik KahunGWGAssists: Brandon Saad, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–2
- P2 13:05CHIChris KunitzAssists: David Kampf · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–3
- P2 17:51CHIDylan StromeAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–4
- P3 0:44CHISlater KoekkoekAssists: Brent Seabrook, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–5
- P3 7:18DALJoel L'EsperancePPAssists: Tyler Seguin, Alexander Radulov · Snap, 0.19 xG1–5
- P3 16:11CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Drake Caggiula, Duncan Keith · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–6
Penalties (4)
- P1 7:20DALMattias Janmark: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:15DALJason Spezza: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:53DALEsa Lindell: Delaying game2 min
- P3 6:03CHIGustav Forsling: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Faksa – Janmark10:54
xG 0.63–0.41 (61%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Radulov – Seguin – Dickinson7:08
xG 0.31–0.20 (61%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Dowling – Pitlick – Hintz7:34
xG 0.45–0.35 (57%)attempts 8–8goals 0–2
- Dowling – Pitlick – L'Esperance2:05
xG 0.01–0.06 (16%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFedun – Oleksiak10:33
xG 0.71–0.34 (67%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Fedun – Heiskanen3:55
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Oleksiak3:54
xG 0.39–0.10 (79%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Hayden – Kampf9:13
xG 0.65–0.22 (75%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Toews – Kane – Caggiula12:47
xG 0.82–0.56 (60%)attempts 18–14goals 2–0
- Anisimov – Saad – Kahun10:19
xG 0.43–0.61 (41%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Perlini – Strome – DeBrincat10:26
xG 0.48–0.99 (33%)attempts 7–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – Koekkoek12:27
xG 1.66–0.85 (66%)attempts 22–16goals 3–0
- Murphy – Koekkoek2:24
xG 0.09–0.14 (41%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Keith – Seabrook2:25
xG 0.05–0.12 (29%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).