Sat, Apr 6, 2019·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Carolina Hurricanes 4, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 311 | 116 | 01 | 428 |
| PHI | 15 | 216 | 010 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:20CARWarren FoegeleAssists: Lucas Wallmark, Brock McGinn · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 11:29CARJustin FaulkAssists: Jordan Martinook, Brock McGinn · Snap, 0.10 xG2–0
- P1 14:19PHIOskar LindblomAssists: Travis Sanheim, Claude Giroux · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–1
- P1 15:40CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Jordan Staal, Nino Niederreiter · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 1:27PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Scott Laughton · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P2 6:07PHISean CouturierPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux · Deflected, 0.16 xG3–3
- P2 7:33CARJordan StaalGWGAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P2 4:59CARDougie Hamilton: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 12:23PHIRyan Hartman: Interference2 min
- P2 12:23PHIRyan Hartman: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:23PHIRyan Hartman: Misconduct10 min
- P2 16:28CARJustin Williams: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Knight
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Niederreiter – Aho13:08
xG 0.52–0.35 (59%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Staal – Ferland – Teravainen11:12
xG 0.38–0.28 (57%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Maenalanen – Foegele – Wallmark6:33
xG 0.12–0.06 (67%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Martinook – McGinn – Svechnikov7:31
xG 0.14–0.19 (43%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Slavin18:53
xG 0.73–0.22 (77%)attempts 20–12goals 1–1
- van Riemsdyk – Fleury12:41
xG 0.25–0.26 (49%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
- Faulk – Pesce17:32
xG 0.34–0.69 (33%)attempts 10–18goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Giroux – Couturier – Lindblom8:32
xG 0.27–0.23 (54%)attempts 9–4goals 1–2
- Laughton – Hartman – Konecny7:32
xG 0.24–0.24 (51%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Voracek2:05
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Voracek – Knight5:08
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – Friedman5:33
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Friedman – Provorov2:34
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Provorov6:05
xG 0.16–0.12 (57%)attempts 5–3goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).