Sat, Apr 6, 2019·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New York Rangers 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 112 | 012 | 24 | 12 | 430 |
| PIT | 114 | 09 | 214 | 02 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:36PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Jake Guentzel, Jared McCann · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 12:49NYRBrendan SmithUnassisted · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 2:28PITNick BjugstadAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Marcus Pettersson · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 12:34NYRBrady SkjeiAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 13:50NYRVladislav NamestnikovSHAssists: Neal Pionk · Backhand, 0.16 xG3–2
- P3 17:25PITJake GuentzelAssists: Sidney Crosby, Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–3
- OT 2:09NYRRyan StromeGWGAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov · Snap, 0.08 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P2 0:30NYRKevin Shattenkirk: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:20NYRRyan Lindgren: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:23NYRBrendan Smith: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:14NYRLias Andersson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Namestnikov – Andersson9:47
xG 0.51–0.32 (61%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Vesey – Lemieux – Howden11:39
xG 0.49–0.75 (39%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Buchnevich12:53
xG 0.36–0.93 (28%)attempts 10–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLindgren – Pionk10:17
xG 0.82–0.62 (57%)attempts 11–10goals 0–2
- Shattenkirk – Skjei15:55
xG 0.31–0.57 (35%)attempts 7–24goals 1–0
- Staal – Claesson13:35
xG 0.44–0.91 (33%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Guentzel – McCann13:08
xG 1.12–0.43 (72%)attempts 23–12goals 1–1
- Cullen – Wilson – Blueger4:53
xG 0.34–0.14 (71%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Cullen – Hornqvist – Bjugstad2:09
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Rust11:29
xG 0.55–0.73 (43%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Pettersson14:08
xG 0.94–0.47 (67%)attempts 20–5goals 1–0
- Letang – Maatta18:14
xG 0.99–0.56 (64%)attempts 25–15goals 1–0
- Johnson – Schultz15:05
xG 0.93–0.93 (50%)attempts 16–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).