Sat, Apr 6, 2019·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Nashville Predators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 28 | 012 | 013 | 233 |
| NSH | 014 | 222 | 314 | 550 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:58CHIBrendan PerliniAssists: Dylan Strome, Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 10:07CHIDrake CaggiulaAssists: Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 9:07NSHDante FabbroAssists: Filip Forsberg, Dan Hamhuis · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 18:50NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Mikael Granlund, Wayne Simmonds · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 3:33NSHViktor ArvidssonPPGWGAssists: Craig Smith, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 17:51NSHColton SissonsENAssists: Nick Bonino, Ryan Ellis · Wrist, 0.63 xG2–4
- P3 19:03NSHNick BoninoAssists: Austin Watson · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 17:33NSHKyle Turris: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:41CHIJonathan Toews: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:43CHIDylan Strome: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 3:11CHIJohn Hayden: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 5:46NSHDan Hamhuis: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Bonino
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestAnisimov – Kane – Saad3:42
xG 0.33–0.12 (74%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Toews – Caggiula – Kahun3:02
xG 0.10–0.06 (62%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Kruger – Hayden5:05
xG 0.11–0.09 (53%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Kane – Strome – DeBrincat2:10
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Seabrook – Koekkoek11:37
xG 0.53–0.50 (51%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Keith – Gustafsson18:56
xG 0.57–0.65 (47%)attempts 18–24goals 1–2
- Murphy – Forsling12:31
xG 0.39–0.55 (41%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Watson – Sissons13:28
xG 0.69–0.22 (76%)attempts 17–8goals 1–1
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson13:45
xG 0.64–0.48 (57%)attempts 17–16goals 1–0
- Turris – Smith – Granlund12:35
xG 0.48–0.45 (52%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
- Boyle – Simmonds – Jarnkrok5:34
xG 0.12–0.16 (43%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Ekholm16:37
xG 1.09–0.37 (74%)attempts 24–12goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Fabbro12:35
xG 0.31–0.39 (44%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Josi – Ellis17:04
xG 0.54–0.69 (44%)attempts 19–22goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).