Sat, Apr 6, 2019·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Minnesota Wild 0, Dallas Stars 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 07 | 05 | 012 | 024 |
| DAL | 014 | 020 | 310 | 344 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 2:44DALTyler SeguinPPGWGAssists: Alexander Radulov, John Klingberg · Slap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P3 8:55DALTyler SeguinAssists: Jamie Oleksiak, Jamie Benn · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–2
- P3 12:01DALTyler PitlickAssists: Roope Hintz, Jason Dickinson · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:27DALAlexander Radulov: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:39MINJonas Brodin: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:43MINJordan Greenway: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 7:05MINNick Seeler: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:05DALRadek Faksa: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:11DALRadek Faksa: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:11MINNick Seeler: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:03MINGreg Pateryn: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 13:55DALTaylor Fedun: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Hintz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestFiala – Donato – Sturm6:39
xG 0.63–0.46 (58%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Staal – Zucker – Rask4:21
xG 0.03–0.33 (7%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Fiala – Eriksson Ek – Kunin2:16
xG 0.01–0.34 (3%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Greenway – Eriksson Ek – Kunin7:13
xG 0.08–0.98 (8%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPateryn – Bitetto4:48
xG 0.47–0.29 (62%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Brodin – Hunt8:33
xG 0.10–0.38 (20%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Pateryn – Seeler7:17
xG 0.23–0.61 (28%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Pitlick – Hintz5:26
xG 0.80–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Spezza – Dowling – Janmark9:15
xG 0.55–0.14 (80%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Dickinson – Hintz3:35
xG 0.50–0.15 (77%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin5:28
xG 0.26–0.03 (89%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFedun – Oleksiak11:46
xG 1.03–0.48 (68%)attempts 19–10goals 1–0
- Klingberg – Lindell13:19
xG 0.71–0.52 (58%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Polak – Heiskanen16:31
xG 1.15–0.96 (54%)attempts 15–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).