Sat, Apr 6, 2019·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Vegas Golden Knights 2, Los Angeles Kings 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 07 | 211 | 013 | 231 |
| LAK | 215 | 13 | 214 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:14LAKIlya KovalchukUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 15:00LAKJeff CarterAssists: Kyle Clifford · Snap, 0.36 xG0–2
- P2 10:35LAKMatt RoyGWGAssists: Dustin Brown, Alex Iafallo · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–3
- P2 10:51VGKBrandon PirriAssists: Cody Eakin, Deryk Engelland · Slap, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 13:09VGKValentin ZykovAssists: Jimmy Schuldt, Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 8:52LAKAnze KopitarPPAssists: Dustin Brown, Carl Grundstrom · Snap, 0.44 xG2–4
- P3 19:05LAKIlya KovalchukENAssists: Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.64 xG2–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:41LAKDustin Brown: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:36VGKNick Holden: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:04LAKDion Phaneuf: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:27VGKDeryk Engelland: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:12VGKMax Pacioretty: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPirri – Eakin – Carpenter10:25
xG 0.99–0.15 (87%)attempts 16–11goals 1–1
- Reaves – Carrier – Bellemare12:30
xG 0.38–0.37 (51%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Stastny – Pacioretty – Tuch12:49
xG 0.39–0.50 (44%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Marchessault – Zykov10:55
xG 0.57–0.96 (37%)attempts 12–9goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Merrill15:10
xG 0.87–0.48 (64%)attempts 24–13goals 0–1
- McNabb – Miller12:49
xG 0.73–0.38 (66%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Miller – Schuldt4:37
xG 0.17–0.17 (49%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Carter – Clifford8:41
xG 0.90–0.53 (63%)attempts 8–10goals 2–0
- Lewis – Wagner – Lizotte7:13
xG 0.66–0.41 (62%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Carter – Lewis – Clifford2:45
xG 0.09–0.00 (98%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Wagner – Iafallo – Lizotte2:00
xG 0.09–0.12 (42%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Walker14:52
xG 1.07–0.47 (69%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Doughty – Forbort16:13
xG 0.45–0.81 (36%)attempts 11–20goals 1–1
- Martinez – Roy14:20
xG 0.44–1.05 (29%)attempts 11–20goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).