Sat, Apr 6, 2019·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Colorado Avalanche 2, San Jose Sharks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 112 | 19 | 09 | 230 |
| SJS | 210 | 112 | 28 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:56COLTyson JostAssists: Samuel Girard, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 7:25SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P1 11:15SJSEvander KaneAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Brenden Dillon · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–2
- P2 1:29COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–2
- P2 6:57SJSKevin LabancGWGAssists: Joe Thornton, Marcus Sorensen · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 5:38SJSGustav NyquistAssists: Evander Kane, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 19:15SJSMicheal HaleyENAssists: Brent Burns, Barclay Goodrow · Wrist, 0.75 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P2 12:28COLTyson Barrie: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:40COLCarl Soderberg: Interference2 min
- P3 6:09SJSJustin Braun: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:19SJSErik Karlsson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Brassard – Calvert – Nieto8:29
xG 0.22–0.18 (55%)attempts 8–6goals 0–2
- Soderberg – Wilson – Compher8:30
xG 0.33–0.32 (51%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Landeskog – Kerfoot – MacKinnon13:14
xG 0.35–0.38 (48%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Bourque – Andrighetto – Jost8:10
xG 0.23–0.43 (35%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Girard12:19
xG 0.49–0.26 (65%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Cole – Nemeth10:59
xG 0.23–0.57 (28%)attempts 16–13goals 0–2
- Barrie – Zadorov15:55
xG 0.20–0.91 (18%)attempts 9–19goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – Kane – Hertl10:09
xG 1.08–0.27 (80%)attempts 17–7goals 3–1
- Thornton – Sorensen – Labanc11:20
xG 0.50–0.11 (82%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Pavelski – Couture – Donskoi10:43
xG 0.46–0.42 (53%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Haley – Goodrow – Karlsson9:33
xG 0.05–0.15 (26%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Dillon15:19
xG 0.98–0.13 (88%)attempts 18–10goals 2–0
- Braun – Ryan11:43
xG 0.45–0.42 (52%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- Burns – Vlasic12:20
xG 0.34–0.43 (44%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).