Wed, Oct 2, 2019·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Vancouver Canucks 2, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 012 | 19 | 112 | 233 |
| EDM | 19 | 06 | 27 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:42EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Zack Kassian, Matt Benning · Snap, 0.22 xG0–1
- P2 11:58VANAlexander EdlerAssists: Brock Boeser, J.T. Miller · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 9:41VANTanner PearsonAssists: Tyler Myers, Quinn Hughes · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 10:52EDMZack KassianAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 14:37EDMConnor McDavidGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Matt Benning · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:58VANJ.T. Miller: Holding2 min
- P2 4:31EDMColby Cave: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
- P2 9:57EDMJoakim Nygard: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 12:14VANMicheal Ferland: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 15:43EDMMatt Benning: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:31EDMJoakim Nygard: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Pearson – Horvat9:39
xG 0.74–0.42 (64%)attempts 17–6goals 1–1
- Ferland – Boeser – Pettersson9:21
xG 0.51–0.27 (65%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Beagle – Schaller – Virtanen5:51
xG 0.12–0.09 (58%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Sutter – Virtanen2:12
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Myers13:56
xG 0.61–0.51 (54%)attempts 20–10goals 0–1
- Tanev – Hughes14:58
xG 0.58–0.51 (53%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- Benn – Stecher9:02
xG 0.31–0.41 (43%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKassian – Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl7:10
xG 0.66–0.37 (64%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Kassian – Draisaitl – McDavid6:39
xG 0.37–0.22 (63%)attempts 7–4goals 2–0
- Chiasson – Granlund – Haas2:02
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Neal – McDavid – Nygard5:11
xG 0.19–0.42 (31%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlefbom – Bear11:37
xG 0.86–0.25 (77%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Larsson – Klefbom2:00
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Nurse – Bear2:28
xG 0.05–0.07 (40%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).