Thu, Oct 3, 2019·Madison Square Garden, New York
Winnipeg Jets 4, New York Rangers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 113 | 220 | 114 | 447 |
| NYR | 17 | 214 | 311 | 632 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:35NYRMarc StaalAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Tony DeAngelo · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 17:23WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers · Snap, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 0:27NYRArtemi PanarinPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Jacob Trouba · Snap, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 0:57WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Ville Heinola · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 6:03NYRJacob TroubaAssists: Chris Kreider, Artemi Panarin · Slap, 0.06 xG2–3
- P2 6:12WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 2:41WPGKyle ConnorPPAssists: Josh Morrissey, Patrik Laine · Tip-in, 0.18 xG4–3
- P3 5:04NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Jacob Trouba, Libor Hajek · Backhand, 0.14 xG4–4
- P3 15:51NYRBrett HowdenGWGAssists: Jesper Fast, Brady Skjei · Backhand, 0.13 xG4–5
- P3 19:43NYRBrendan SmithENAssists: Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.57 xG4–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:15NYRRyan Strome: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:30NYRRyan Strome: High sticking2 min
- P1 18:50WPGJosh Morrissey: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 3:58WPGMathieu Perreault: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 16:21NYRBrendan Lemieux: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:59NYRBrady Skjei: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 18:23NYRJesper Fast: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers11:53
xG 1.69–0.33 (84%)attempts 22–9goals 3–0
- Letestu – Roslovic – Appleton4:50
xG 0.14–0.20 (42%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Copp – Connor – Laine9:29
xG 0.30–0.46 (40%)attempts 10–9goals 0–2
- Perreault – Bourque – Lowry7:49
xG 0.13–0.59 (18%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPionk – Heinola15:48
xG 1.49–0.88 (63%)attempts 22–17goals 1–1
- Kulikov – Morrissey16:53
xG 1.08–0.57 (66%)attempts 21–13goals 2–2
- Bitetto – Poolman12:39
xG 0.09–0.35 (21%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Fast – Namestnikov – Howden9:55
xG 0.19–0.18 (51%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Zibanejad – Buchnevich – Panarin14:25
xG 0.57–0.94 (38%)attempts 11–20goals 2–0
- Kreider – Strome – Kakko10:19
xG 0.37–1.41 (21%)attempts 10–20goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- DeAngelo – Hajek2:05
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Skjei – Trouba15:15
xG 0.75–1.17 (39%)attempts 15–26goals 1–1
- Fox – Hajek6:24
xG 0.00–0.44 (0%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).