Thu, Oct 3, 2019·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Montréal Canadiens 3, Carolina Hurricanes 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 013 | 313 | 07 | 03 | 0 | 336 |
| CAR | 110 | 113 | 119 | 01 | 1 | 443 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:19CARLucas WallmarkAssists: Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P2 2:19CARMartin NecasPPAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Teuvo Teravainen · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 4:18MTLTomas TatarPPUnassisted · Snap, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 5:22MTLJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Artturi Lehkonen, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 16:36MTLJordan WealAssists: Paul Byron, Nate Thompson · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 6:55CARErik HaulaAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Ryan Dzingel · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. CAR Dougie Hamilton scored
- 2. MTL Paul Byron stopped
- 3. CAR Erik Haula stopped
- 4. MTL Jonathan Drouin stopped
- 5. CAR Teuvo Teravainen stopped
- 6. MTL Nick Suzuki stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:12CARJordan Martinook: Interference2 min
- P2 0:39MTLJesperi Kotkaniemi: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min · PPG
- P2 3:16CARBrett Pesce: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:28MTLBen Chiarot: Holding2 min
- P3 2:54CARJordan Martinook: Boarding2 min
- P3 4:47MTLJesperi Kotkaniemi: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Gallagher – Domi2:44
xG 0.13–0.06 (69%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault10:35
xG 0.20–0.50 (29%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – Domi – Suzuki9:01
xG 0.17–0.48 (27%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Armia – Drouin – Kotkaniemi8:46
xG 0.31–0.73 (30%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Chiarot17:17
xG 0.98–0.75 (57%)attempts 25–19goals 1–0
- Weber – Mete13:39
xG 0.48–1.08 (31%)attempts 9–20goals 1–0
- Kulak – Fleury13:11
xG 0.18–1.04 (15%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Teravainen – Aho4:42
xG 0.70–0.01 (99%)attempts 12–1goals 0–0
- Foegele – Wallmark – Necas4:52
xG 0.72–0.37 (66%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
- Staal – Teravainen – Svechnikov6:40
xG 0.24–0.07 (77%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Haula – Dzingel – Martinook6:06
xG 0.37–0.26 (58%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Pesce13:40
xG 0.89–0.10 (90%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Gardiner – Pesce5:11
xG 0.30–0.13 (70%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Slavin – Pesce2:04
xG 0.27–0.13 (67%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).