Fri, Oct 4, 2019·Prudential Center, Newark
Winnipeg Jets 5, New Jersey Devils 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 04 | 115 | 38 | 03 | 2 | 530 |
| NJD | 17 | 319 | 012 | 01 | 1 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:00NJDNikita GusevAssists: Jesper Bratt · Snap, 0.29 xG0–1
- P2 1:42NJDBlake ColemanAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Travis Zajac · Snap, 0.25 xG0–2
- P2 12:34NJDSami VatanenAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Taylor Hall · Slap, 0.02 xG0–3
- P2 13:52NJDBlake ColemanAssists: P.K. Subban, Pavel Zacha · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–4
- P2 19:49WPGDmitry KulikovAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Mark Scheifele · Slap, 0.06 xG1–4
- P3 2:41WPGJack RoslovicAssists: Neal Pionk, Mathieu Perreault · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 7:17WPGMathieu PerreaultAssists: Andrew Copp, Patrik Laine · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–4
- P3 12:35WPGNeal PionkAssists: Mark Scheifele, Ville Heinola · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. NJD Nikita Gusev scored
- 2. WPG Kyle Connor scored
- 3. NJD Jack Hughes stopped
- 4. WPG Patrik Laine stopped
- 5. NJD Taylor Hall stopped
- 6. WPG Mark Scheifele stopped
- 7. NJD Kyle Palmieri stopped
- 8. WPG Blake Wheeler scored
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:17NJDTravis Zajac: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:26WPGMathieu Perreault: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 14:36NJDMiles Wood: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:59WPGAndrew Copp: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Letestu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestPerreault – Roslovic – Appleton7:00
xG 0.37–0.25 (59%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Letestu – Bourque – Lowry9:54
xG 0.31–0.40 (43%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Copp – Connor – Laine12:48
xG 0.42–0.59 (42%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers14:44
xG 0.50–1.44 (26%)attempts 10–11goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- Kulikov – Morrissey18:21
xG 1.03–1.28 (45%)attempts 14–19goals 1–1
- Bitetto – Poolman10:05
xG 0.25–0.51 (33%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Pionk – Heinola18:23
xG 0.28–1.16 (19%)attempts 8–16goals 2–2
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZajac – Simmonds – Coleman11:05
xG 0.80–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 1–0
- Wood – Zacha – Bratt2:55
xG 0.32–0.02 (95%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Zajac – Simmonds – Wood2:23
xG 0.29–0.21 (58%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Gusev – Bratt – Hughes6:05
xG 0.26–0.21 (55%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Subban14:51
xG 1.57–0.54 (74%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0
- Vatanen – Mueller2:10
xG 0.36–0.03 (93%)attempts 4–2goals 2–0
- Vatanen – Butcher15:32
xG 0.60–0.45 (57%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).