Fri, Oct 4, 2019·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Vegas Golden Knights 5, San Jose Sharks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 213 | 210 | 16 | 529 |
| SJS | 09 | 06 | 120 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:01VGKWilliam CarrierAssists: Tomas Nosek, Valentin Zykov · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 14:09VGKJonathan MarchessaultGWGAssists: Shea Theodore · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 15:22VGKBrayden McNabbSHAssists: William Karlsson, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–0
- P2 16:50VGKTomas NosekAssists: Brandon Pirri, Mark Stone · Backhand, 0.25 xG4–0
- P3 9:10VGKTomas NosekSHAssists: Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.43 xG5–0
- P3 14:05SJSBarclay GoodrowAssists: Mario Ferraro, Joe Thornton · Backhand, 0.09 xG5–1
Penalties (14)
- P2 0:43VGKWilliam Karlsson: Interference2 min
- P2 6:56VGKMax Pacioretty: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:20SJSMario Ferraro: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:43VGKBrandon Pirri: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:38VGKJon Merrill: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:00VGKPaul Stastny: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:46SJSTimo Meier: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:05SJSMarcus Sorensen: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:05VGKWilliam Karlsson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:05SJSMarcus Sorensen: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:05VGKNicolas Hague: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:05VGKDeryk Engelland: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:05SJSJoe Thornton: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:05SJSBarclay Goodrow: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Marchessault won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Stone – Glass7:44
xG 0.77–0.10 (89%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault9:35
xG 0.45–0.38 (54%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Stastny – Pirri – Zykov8:48
xG 0.34–0.38 (48%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Reaves – Carrier – Nosek9:15
xG 0.17–0.55 (23%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Merrill16:39
xG 1.02–0.24 (81%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- McNabb – Theodore15:18
xG 0.55–0.58 (49%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Engelland – Hague11:29
xG 0.67–1.02 (40%)attempts 9–16goals 1–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Meier – Yurtaykin10:21
xG 0.58–0.31 (65%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Hertl – Labanc – Bergmann6:50
xG 0.44–0.21 (68%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Thornton – Sorensen – Goodrow3:38
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Gambrell – Radil3:01
xG 0.08–0.01 (90%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Ferraro4:24
xG 0.60–0.03 (95%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Dillon8:28
xG 0.34–0.25 (57%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Karlsson5:23
xG 0.33–0.26 (56%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).