Sat, Oct 5, 2019·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
New Jersey Devils 2, Buffalo Sabres 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 04 | 18 | 18 | 220 |
| BUF | 215 | 312 | 29 | 736 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:56BUFVictor OlofssonPPAssists: Jack Eichel, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 17:26BUFJack EichelPPAssists: Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–2
- P2 0:37NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: Taylor Hall, Nico Hischier · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 2:49BUFKyle OkposoGWGAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Zemgus Girgensons · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 8:57BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Marcus Johansson, Marco Scandella · Snap, 0.08 xG1–4
- P2 13:33BUFVictor OlofssonPPAssists: Jack Eichel, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–5
- P3 0:58NJDTravis ZajacAssists: Blake Coleman, Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–5
- P3 3:56BUFSam ReinhartAssists: Jake McCabe, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–6
- P3 16:16BUFSam ReinhartUnassisted · Backhand, 0.24 xG2–7
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:35NJDWill Butcher: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 17:04NJDBlake Coleman: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 4:52BUFColin Miller: Boarding2 min
- P2 12:14NJDBlake Coleman: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:26BUFJake McCabe: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:26NJDWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:26NJDWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:26NJDP.K. Subban: Misconduct10 min
- P2 14:26BUFKyle Okposo: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:53BUFConor Sheary: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZajac – Coleman – Wood2:38
xG 0.29–0.15 (66%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Gusev – Zacha – Boqvist9:35
xG 0.22–0.09 (71%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Hall – Hischier9:59
xG 0.37–0.28 (57%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Zajac – Simmonds – Coleman8:36
xG 0.33–0.39 (46%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Severson4:32
xG 0.44–0.14 (77%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Vatanen – Mueller4:12
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Severson – Mueller7:59
xG 0.25–0.28 (47%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSobotka – Johansson – Skinner10:59
xG 0.44–0.21 (68%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Okposo – Larsson – Girgensons8:29
xG 0.22–0.01 (95%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Vesey – Sheary – Mittelstadt9:12
xG 0.33–0.31 (51%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Olofsson – Eichel13:21
xG 0.52–0.57 (47%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Jokiharju14:04
xG 0.80–0.32 (71%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
- Miller – Dahlin13:31
xG 0.56–0.40 (58%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- McCabe – Ristolainen17:04
xG 0.43–0.51 (46%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).