Sat, Oct 5, 2019·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 012 | 112 | 16 | 230 |
| PIT | 010 | 514 | 216 | 740 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:45PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Jack Johnson, Jared McCann · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 4:14PITMarcus PetterssonAssists: Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 6:45CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Riley Nash, Nick Foligno · Snap, 0.20 xG1–2
- P2 8:45PITJared McCannGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 15:23PITJared McCannAssists: Alex Galchenyuk · Snap, 0.08 xG1–4
- P2 19:58PITKris LetangPPAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Justin Schultz · Slap, 0.09 xG1–5
- P3 9:50PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–6
- P3 11:58PITTeddy BluegerAssists: Dominik Kahun, Brandon Tanev · Snap, 0.04 xG1–7
- P3 14:19CBJGustav NyquistAssists: Riley Nash · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–7
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:07CBJJosh Anderson: Cross checking2 min
- P1 13:21CBJNick Foligno: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:19PITBrian Dumoulin: Holding2 min
- P2 15:09PITSidney Crosby: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:09CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 19:34CBJSeth Jones: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:24CBJRiley Nash: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestBjorkstrand – Wennberg – Texier7:37
xG 0.39–0.03 (93%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Nash – Bemstrom – Lilja2:26
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Nash – Bjorkstrand – Lilja3:48
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Wennberg – Texier – Bemstrom3:16
xG 0.00–0.17 (3%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Kukan – Gavrikov10:14
xG 0.35–0.35 (50%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Jones – Werenski8:00
xG 0.16–0.22 (42%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Savard – Werenski9:11
xG 0.76–0.92 (45%)attempts 15–17goals 1–3
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Guentzel – Simon11:25
xG 1.01–0.54 (65%)attempts 19–12goals 1–1
- Hornqvist – Bjugstad – McCann3:57
xG 0.22–0.05 (80%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – Bjugstad – Aston-Reese3:32
xG 0.19–0.02 (88%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Malkin – Galchenyuk – Tanev3:51
xG 0.16–0.04 (78%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin16:10
xG 0.89–0.16 (84%)attempts 22–8goals 2–0
- Johnson – Gudbranson15:00
xG 0.46–0.39 (54%)attempts 12–12goals 3–0
- Schultz – Pettersson15:10
xG 0.83–0.79 (51%)attempts 14–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).