Sat, Oct 5, 2019·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Vancouver Canucks 0, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 011 | 05 | 018 | 034 |
| CGY | 110 | 114 | 16 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:50CGYElias LindholmGWGAssists: Johnny Gaudreau · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 1:10CGYSean MonahanAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Mark Giordano · Snap, 0.22 xG0–2
- P3 18:59CGYJohnny GaudreauENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.64 xG0–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:33CGYElias Lindholm: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:53VANTroy Stecher: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:46VANJosh Leivo: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:31VANJake Virtanen: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 9:33CGYTJ Brodie: Interference2 min
- P2 17:44CGYMilan Lucic: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:39VANTyler Myers: Interference2 min
- P2 18:39CGYTravis Hamonic: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:49VANJake Virtanen: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 1:10CGYMilan Lucic: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:10CGYElias Lindholm: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:45CGYTravis Hamonic: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestFerland – Boeser – Pettersson6:50
xG 0.27–0.05 (83%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Sutter – Leivo – Gaudette2:07
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Sutter – Virtanen – Gaudette3:21
xG 0.08–0.11 (41%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Miller – Pearson – Horvat7:33
xG 0.37–0.57 (39%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Benn – Stecher7:36
xG 0.09–0.05 (62%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Myers – Hughes3:40
xG 0.03–0.02 (62%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Tanev – Hughes10:59
xG 0.34–0.49 (41%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan11:14
xG 0.90–0.45 (67%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
- Backlund – Mangiapane – Tkachuk4:36
xG 0.20–0.05 (80%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Rieder – Jankowski – Mangiapane2:41
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Lucic – Bennett – Ryan6:56
xG 0.23–0.17 (57%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Kylington10:05
xG 0.65–0.16 (80%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Hamonic – Hanifin15:22
xG 0.32–0.44 (43%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
- Giordano – Brodie12:02
xG 0.39–0.52 (43%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).