Sun, Oct 6, 2019·NYCB Live/Nassau Coliseum, Uniondale
Winnipeg Jets 1, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 015 | 19 | 012 | 136 |
| NYI | 09 | 319 | 15 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:51NYIJosh BaileyPPAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Devon Toews · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 4:38NYIBrock NelsonGWGAssists: Josh Bailey, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 15:55NYIAnders LeeAssists: Scott Mayfield, Mathew Barzal · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–3
- P2 17:06WPGPatrik LaineAssists: Blake Wheeler, Anthony Bitetto · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 1:25NYIAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Derick Brassard, Leo Komarov · Backhand, 0.22 xG1–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 11:52NYICasey Cizikas: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:57WPGCarl Dahlstrom: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 10:34NYIDerick Brassard: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Letestu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestPerreault – Roslovic – Appleton8:42
xG 0.43–0.20 (68%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Laine7:08
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Copp – Connor – Laine5:49
xG 0.12–0.08 (59%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Copp – Ehlers – Connor6:45
xG 0.32–0.42 (43%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBitetto – Poolman12:31
xG 0.57–0.38 (60%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
- Kulikov – Dahlstrom17:15
xG 0.52–0.73 (42%)attempts 20–13goals 0–1
- Pionk – Heinola19:21
xG 0.50–1.03 (33%)attempts 21–15goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Lee – Barzal13:21
xG 1.12–0.21 (84%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Komarov – Brassard – Beauvillier12:33
xG 0.60–0.48 (55%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas9:39
xG 0.32–0.35 (48%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Bailey – Nelson – Dal Colle11:48
xG 0.32–0.37 (46%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock16:46
xG 0.61–0.28 (69%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Toews15:15
xG 0.73–0.53 (58%)attempts 11–16goals 2–0
- Boychuk – Leddy15:40
xG 0.38–0.73 (34%)attempts 9–22goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).