Mon, Oct 7, 2019·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Buffalo Sabres 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 06 | 27 | 15 | 00 | 318 |
| CBJ | 214 | 015 | 114 | 11 | 444 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:09CBJOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Seth Jones, Zach Werenski · Backhand, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 19:05CBJCam AtkinsonPPAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Snap, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 1:32BUFMarcus JohanssonPPAssists: Colin Miller, Conor Sheary · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 11:58BUFJeff SkinnerUnassisted · Snap, 0.19 xG2–2
- P3 6:46CBJNick FolignoPPAssists: Emil Bemstrom, Alexandre Texier · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–3
- P3 18:46BUFVictor OlofssonPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Sam Reinhart · Slap, 0.03 xG3–3
- OT 2:08CBJAlexandre TexierGWGAssists: Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:26CBJDavid Savard: Holding2 min
- P1 18:56BUFHenri Jokiharju: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 0:37CBJCam Atkinson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:04CBJSonny Milano: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 8:14BUFRasmus Dahlin: Interference2 min
- P3 5:38BUFRasmus Dahlin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 17:34CBJBoone Jenner: Delaying game face off violation2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Larsson – Girgensons9:34
xG 0.32–0.01 (96%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Olofsson – Eichel15:11
xG 0.36–0.41 (47%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
- Sobotka – Johansson – Skinner10:09
xG 0.27–0.40 (40%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Vesey – Sheary – Mittelstadt7:48
xG 0.06–0.54 (11%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Dahlin15:14
xG 0.55–0.29 (65%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- McCabe – Ristolainen16:44
xG 0.60–0.47 (56%)attempts 17–18goals 1–1
- Scandella – Jokiharju12:34
xG 0.02–0.66 (2%)attempts 3–16goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestNash – Milano – Lilja5:45
xG 0.35–0.22 (62%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Nyquist – Atkinson – Dubois13:27
xG 0.32–0.19 (63%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Bjorkstrand – Wennberg – Texier12:14
xG 0.30–0.18 (62%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Foligno – Jenner – Bemstrom8:30
xG 0.11–0.21 (35%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Nutivaara12:17
xG 0.65–0.14 (82%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Savard – Murray16:14
xG 0.46–0.39 (54%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
- Jones – Werenski17:22
xG 0.36–0.47 (43%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).