Tue, Oct 8, 2019·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Carolina Hurricanes 6, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 414 | 116 | 15 | 635 |
| FLA | 010 | 122 | 218 | 350 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:48CARJordan StaalAssists: Brock McGinn, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–0
- P1 11:04CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Haydn Fleury, Nino Niederreiter · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–0
- P1 15:37CARDougie HamiltonAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Jordan Staal · Slap, 0.28 xG3–0
- P1 18:14CARRyan DzingelPPGWGAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Andrei Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.49 xG4–0
- P2 1:31CARRyan DzingelAssists: Martin Necas, Haydn Fleury · Slap, 0.20 xG5–0
- P2 3:51FLAMacKenzie WeegarAssists: Mike Hoffman, Aleksander Barkov · Tip-in, 0.20 xG5–1
- P3 9:34FLAKeith YandlePPAssists: Mike Hoffman, Brett Connolly · Slap, 0.09 xG5–2
- P3 15:52FLAEvgenii DadonovPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov · Snap, 0.29 xG5–3
- P3 18:41CARSebastian AhoENAssists: Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.66 xG6–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 7:50CARNino Niederreiter: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:40CARSebastian Aho: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:56CARLucas Wallmark: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:56FLAJayce Hawryluk: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:32FLADryden Hunt: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:08CARDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:07FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:15CARJoel Edmundson: Interference2 min
- P2 19:17FLAHenrik Borgstrom: High sticking2 min
- P3 8:05CARAndrei Svechnikov: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 8:05FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:18CARNino Niederreiter: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 13:58CARBrock McGinn: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Dzingel – Necas7:22
xG 0.42–0.18 (70%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Staal – McGinn – Svechnikov8:54
xG 1.03–0.82 (56%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
- Martinook – Foegele – Wallmark7:23
xG 0.07–0.19 (26%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Teravainen – Aho6:58
xG 0.15–0.95 (13%)attempts 3–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Pesce3:26
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Pesce8:35
xG 0.32–0.31 (50%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Fleury8:07
xG 0.91–0.97 (48%)attempts 9–11goals 2–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Huberdeau – Barkov6:42
xG 0.86–0.22 (80%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Connolly – Trocheck – Vatrano5:52
xG 0.44–0.04 (93%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Hunt – Acciari6:10
xG 0.52–0.33 (61%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Hawryluk – Vatrano – Borgstrom4:36
xG 0.21–0.04 (83%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Weegar11:58
xG 1.19–0.27 (81%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Matheson – Ekblad5:43
xG 0.47–0.02 (96%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Yandle – Ekblad7:04
xG 0.50–0.22 (70%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).