Tue, Oct 8, 2019·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Anaheim Ducks 3, Detroit Red Wings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 07 | 09 | 313 | 329 |
| DET | 011 | 111 | 010 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 19:55DETFilip HronekSHAssists: Andreas Athanasiou, Dylan Larkin · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P3 4:52ANARickard RakellAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Jakob Silfverberg · Slap, 0.47 xG1–1
- P3 9:10ANANick RitchieGWGAssists: Derek Grant, Brendan Guhle · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 9:57ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Devin Shore, Ryan Getzlaf · Snap, 0.10 xG3–1
Penalties (5)
- P2 2:03DETDennis Cholowski: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:35DETMadison Bowey: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:34ANATroy Terry: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 1:00DETMike Green: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:07ANANick Ritchie: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grant won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Silfverberg – Rakell – Lundeström8:42
xG 0.23–0.25 (48%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Grant – Rowney – Ritchie6:51
xG 0.19–0.28 (41%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Henrique – Kase – Jones3:50
xG 0.00–0.09 (3%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Shore – Kase3:45
xG 0.08–0.17 (31%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Guhle14:21
xG 0.98–0.61 (62%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Manson – Lindholm12:31
xG 0.74–0.44 (63%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Del Zotto – Larsson13:26
xG 0.36–1.46 (20%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Mantha – Larkin13:19
xG 1.43–0.38 (79%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Helm – de la Rose5:53
xG 0.72–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Filppula – Erne – Ehn7:02
xG 0.39–0.15 (73%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Glendening – Athanasiou – Hirose7:47
xG 0.17–0.39 (30%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeKeyser – Hronek10:08
xG 0.70–0.17 (81%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Cholowski – Hronek3:25
xG 0.30–0.16 (65%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
- Green – Cholowski6:48
xG 0.21–0.10 (68%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).