Tue, Oct 8, 2019·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
San Jose Sharks 2, Nashville Predators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 07 | 118 | 110 | 235 |
| NSH | 19 | 17 | 39 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:16NSHRoman JosiAssists: Colton Sissons, Ryan Ellis · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 10:25NSHRoman JosiPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 15:12SJSEvander KanePPAssists: Logan Couture, Brent Burns · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 2:51NSHKyle TurrisGWGAssists: Rocco Grimaldi · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 7:24NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–4
- P3 15:37SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Lean Bergmann, Dylan Gambrell · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–4
- P3 18:19NSHDante FabbroENAssists: Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.47 xG2–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 14:00NSHAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:00SJSTrevor Carrick: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:02SJSEvander Kane: Interference2 min
- P2 2:57NSHMikael Granlund: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:12SJSJoe Thornton: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:40SJSBrenden Dillon: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 15:06NSHMatt Duchene: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 19:00SJSBrent Burns: Interference2 min
- P2 19:52NSHRyan Johansen: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:09SJSEvander Kane: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Karlsson – Radil8:59
xG 0.41–0.17 (70%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Kane – Goodrow – Hertl11:18
xG 0.25–0.22 (52%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Couture – Labanc – Meier7:51
xG 0.32–0.52 (38%)attempts 6–8goals 0–2
- Brodzinski – Gambrell – Bergmann7:26
xG 0.18–0.41 (31%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Dillon7:11
xG 0.34–0.14 (71%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Ferraro8:03
xG 0.26–0.08 (77%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Dillon – Carrick2:18
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Watson – Sissons11:53
xG 0.52–0.13 (80%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Forsberg8:49
xG 0.34–0.21 (62%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
- Smith – Johansen – Arvidsson7:17
xG 0.23–0.13 (63%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Turris – Jarnkrok – Grimaldi7:26
xG 0.36–0.39 (47%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis11:09
xG 0.67–0.26 (72%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0
- Ekholm – Fabbro14:22
xG 0.28–0.52 (35%)attempts 5–18goals 0–0
- Weber – Irwin11:46
xG 0.18–0.47 (28%)attempts 5–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).