Tue, Oct 8, 2019·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Boston Bruins 4, Vegas Golden Knights 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 211 | 213 | 011 | 435 |
| VGK | 212 | 015 | 17 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:36VGKMark StonePPAssists: Max Pacioretty, Cody Glass · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 8:20VGKReilly SmithAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P1 11:21BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P1 18:58BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: David Pastrnak, Torey Krug · Slap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 0:33BOSBrad MarchandAssists: David Pastrnak · Snap, 0.08 xG3–2
- P2 2:27BOSTorey KrugGWGAssists: Brandon Carlo, Sean Kuraly · Slap, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 14:42VGKMax PaciorettyPPAssists: Shea Theodore, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:15BOSBrett Ritchie: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 17:38VGKBrandon Pirri: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 3:18BOSDavid Backes: Interference2 min
- P3 2:00VGKNicolas Hague: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:34VGKBrayden McNabb: Holding2 min
- P3 14:22BOSBrad Marchand: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Marchessault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Heinen – Kuhlman6:24
xG 0.43–0.15 (74%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak10:40
xG 0.75–0.55 (58%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Backes – Wagner – Kuraly10:39
xG 0.19–0.13 (59%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Krejci – DeBrusk – Kuhlman4:14
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKrug – Clifton3:08
xG 0.25–0.01 (95%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – Clifton6:06
xG 0.29–0.06 (82%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Chara – McAvoy15:09
xG 0.83–0.82 (50%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault13:47
xG 1.22–0.18 (87%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Pacioretty – Stone – Glass11:49
xG 0.67–0.75 (47%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Reaves – Carrier – Nosek6:35
xG 0.15–0.43 (26%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Stastny – Pirri – Zykov8:50
xG 0.20–0.84 (19%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore13:50
xG 1.12–0.43 (72%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
- Holden – Merrill19:24
xG 0.67–0.86 (44%)attempts 20–18goals 0–1
- Engelland – Hague11:17
xG 0.45–1.31 (25%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).