Wed, Oct 9, 2019·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New Jersey Devils 0, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 010 | 07 | 08 | 025 |
| PHI | 06 | 115 | 313 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:52PHIIvan ProvorovPPGWGAssists: Matt Niskanen, Travis Konecny · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P3 0:33PHIKevin HayesPPAssists: Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P3 0:57PHISean CouturierAssists: Oskar Lindblom, Ivan Provorov · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–3
- P3 11:46PHITravis KonecnyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:29NJDMiles Wood: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:59NJDNikita Gusev: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:45PHIKevin Hayes: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:33PHIMichael Raffl: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:29PHISean Couturier: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:29PHIKevin Hayes: Delaying game face off violation2 min
- P3 0:20NJDSami Vatanen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 5:09NJDBlake Coleman: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:35PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayes won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Coleman – Hughes8:33
xG 0.39–0.11 (79%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Zajac – Palmieri – Bratt8:47
xG 0.12–0.10 (54%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Hayden – Wood – Rooney8:02
xG 0.16–0.27 (37%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Hall – Gusev – Hischier11:13
xG 0.19–1.38 (12%)attempts 5–21goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Severson2:39
xG 0.46–0.12 (79%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Subban – Butcher2:42
xG 0.07–0.02 (80%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Greene – Severson10:06
xG 0.12–0.19 (38%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Lindblom – Konecny10:38
xG 1.32–0.07 (95%)attempts 17–2goals 2–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Hayes10:47
xG 0.48–0.26 (65%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Raffl – Bunnaman5:11
xG 0.10–0.02 (85%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Laughton – Twarynski8:56
xG 0.25–0.31 (44%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Provorov13:58
xG 1.13–0.61 (65%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Gostisbehere – Hagg11:41
xG 0.34–0.09 (80%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Sanheim12:01
xG 0.44–0.56 (44%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).