Thu, Oct 10, 2019·Centre Bell, Montreal
Detroit Red Wings 4, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 215 | 111 | 18 | 434 |
| MTL | 112 | 112 | 011 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:33DETDarren HelmAssists: Jacob de la Rose, Danny DeKeyser · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 19:07MTLJoel ArmiaAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Phillip Danault · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 19:37DETTyler BertuzziAssists: Dylan Larkin, Danny DeKeyser · Backhand, 0.24 xG2–1
- P2 4:34MTLMax DomiPPAssists: Tomas Tatar, Jeff Petry · Backhand, 0.30 xG2–2
- P2 15:38DETAnthony ManthaPPGWGAssists: Dennis Cholowski, Taro Hirose · Slap, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 19:02DETLuke GlendeningENAssists: Valtteri Filppula · Wrist, 0.45 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P2 2:57DETAnthony Mantha: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:16DETPatrik Nemeth: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:22MTLNick Suzuki: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 2:25MTLChristian Folin: Elbowing2 min
- P3 19:34DETAnthony Mantha: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kotkaniemi won the faceoff against de la Rose
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Mantha – Larkin14:17
xG 1.36–0.24 (85%)attempts 19–14goals 1–0
- Abdelkader – Helm – de la Rose10:08
xG 0.54–0.34 (62%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Glendening – Athanasiou – Hirose9:14
xG 0.27–0.14 (66%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Filppula – Erne – Ehn7:43
xG 0.03–0.16 (14%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCholowski – Hronek9:17
xG 1.43–0.15 (90%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Green – Cholowski3:11
xG 0.32–0.07 (82%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- DeKeyser – Bowey9:47
xG 0.51–0.30 (63%)attempts 13–8goals 2–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Domi – Suzuki4:45
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Danault – Lehkonen5:24
xG 0.02–0.02 (48%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Thompson – Weal – Suzuki2:00
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Thompson – Byron – Weal5:31
xG 0.28–0.38 (42%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Reilly – Folin12:41
xG 0.31–0.65 (32%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
- Weber – Mete14:04
xG 0.29–0.69 (29%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Petry – Chiarot17:35
xG 0.27–1.38 (16%)attempts 16–20goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).