Thu, Oct 10, 2019·Prudential Center, Newark
Edmonton Oilers 4, New Jersey Devils 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 15 | 111 | 14 | 02 | 1 | 422 |
| NJD | 17 | 112 | 19 | 03 | 0 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:14NJDKyle PalmieriUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 9:17EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Darnell Nurse, Zack Kassian · Snap, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 14:12NJDNikita GusevAssists: Jesper Bratt, Connor Carrick · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 19:32EDMJames NealPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid · Tip-in, 0.19 xG2–2
- P3 15:35NJDDamon SeversonAssists: Taylor Hall, Nico Hischier · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 18:54EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Oscar Klefbom, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.44 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NJD Nikita Gusev stopped
- 2. EDM Ryan Nugent-Hopkins stopped
- 3. NJD Jack Hughes stopped
- 4. EDM Connor McDavid stopped
- 5. NJD Taylor Hall stopped
- 6. EDM Leon Draisaitl scored
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:24EDMDarnell Nurse: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:59NJDPavel Zacha: Interference2 min
- P2 15:35EDMTomas Jurco: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:21NJDMiles Wood: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:44NJDBlake Coleman: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Sheahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestGranlund – Nygard – Haas6:20
xG 0.09–0.01 (87%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Kassian – Draisaitl – McDavid17:11
xG 0.61–0.57 (52%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
- Sheahan – Khaira – Russell10:17
xG 0.26–0.28 (48%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Neal – Jurco – Nugent-Hopkins11:32
xG 0.10–0.59 (15%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Klefbom – Persson14:10
xG 0.42–0.50 (46%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Russell – Benning12:32
xG 0.13–0.50 (21%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Nurse – Bear20:01
xG 0.37–0.86 (30%)attempts 10–16goals 1–2
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Zacha – Hughes11:23
xG 0.72–0.21 (78%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Hall – Hischier14:34
xG 0.61–0.18 (77%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0
- Zajac – Coleman – Wood13:04
xG 0.70–0.29 (71%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Gusev – Rooney – Bratt6:41
xG 0.03–0.15 (17%)attempts 1–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarrick – Mueller9:53
xG 1.33–0.27 (83%)attempts 15–7goals 2–0
- Subban – Severson15:44
xG 0.53–0.24 (69%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Carrick – Butcher2:11
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).