Thu, Oct 10, 2019·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Anaheim Ducks 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 08 | 112 | 012 | 132 |
| PIT | 011 | 110 | 17 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:57PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Kris Letang, Justin Schultz · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 3:27ANAOndrej KaseAssists: Nick Ritchie, Brendan Guhle · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 7:24PITJake GuentzelGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Dominik Simon · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:39ANAHampus Lindholm: Slashing2 min
- P1 5:03ANAKorbinian Holzer: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:03PITTeddy Blueger: Instigator2 min
- P1 5:03PITTeddy Blueger: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:03PITTeddy Blueger: Misconduct10 min
- P1 14:01PITAndrew Agozzino: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 19:00ANAMax Jones: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:49ANAJosh Manson: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 5:21ANAJosh Manson: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:20ANAAdam Henrique: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:11ANADerek Grant: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 10:02PITZachary Aston-Reese: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grant won the faceoff against Blueger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSilfverberg – Rakell – Lundeström7:52
xG 0.71–0.10 (88%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Henrique – Silfverberg – Rakell2:06
xG 0.06–0.03 (67%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Henrique – Ritchie – Kase8:16
xG 0.41–0.40 (51%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Getzlaf – Shore – Terry3:59
xG 0.02–0.10 (14%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm10:44
xG 0.56–0.18 (75%)attempts 15–5goals 0–1
- Fowler – Larsson2:07
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Fowler – Guhle13:22
xG 0.60–0.62 (49%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestBlueger – Lafferty – Aston-Reese2:47
xG 0.16–0.05 (77%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Lafferty – Tanev – Aston-Reese2:35
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Hornqvist – McCann – Kahun6:39
xG 0.25–0.18 (58%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Blueger – Lafferty – Tanev2:54
xG 0.05–0.20 (20%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Letang – Dumoulin14:33
xG 0.54–0.51 (52%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Schultz – Pettersson12:52
xG 0.54–0.61 (47%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
- Johnson – Marino11:07
xG 0.17–0.53 (24%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).