Thu, Oct 10, 2019·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
St. Louis Blues 6, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 08 | 214 | 415 | 637 |
| OTT | 28 | 112 | 19 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:10OTTVitaly AbramovAssists: Scott Sabourin, Nikita Zaitsev · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 19:07OTTArtem AnisimovAssists: Connor Brown, Vladislav Namestnikov · Snap, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 9:07STLDavid PerronPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Alex Pietrangelo · Snap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 11:32STLOskar SundqvistAssists: Alexander Steen, Ivan Barbashev · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 17:49OTTChris TierneySHAssists: Ron Hainsey · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–3
- P3 1:38STLJay BouwmeesterAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Colton Parayko · Slap, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 12:47STLBrayden SchennUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 14:12OTTAnthony DuclairAssists: Bobby Ryan, Erik Brannstrom · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–4
- P3 14:54STLDavid PerronGWGAssists: Tyler Bozak, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–4
- P3 18:44STLRyan O'ReillyENAssists: Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.65 xG6–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 10:13OTTBobby Ryan: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:37OTTScott Sabourin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:39OTTVitaly Abramov: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:30OTTColin White: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against White
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBozak – Sanford – Fabbri7:30
xG 0.41–0.08 (84%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Schenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz12:46
xG 0.59–0.35 (63%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
- Perron – O'Reilly – Blais12:49
xG 0.48–0.57 (46%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
- Steen – Sundqvist – Barbashev11:41
xG 0.34–0.82 (30%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Faulk14:39
xG 0.72–0.51 (59%)attempts 18–18goals 1–2
- Bouwmeester – Parayko20:27
xG 0.57–0.53 (52%)attempts 18–19goals 1–1
- Bortuzzo – Dunn11:46
xG 0.21–0.87 (19%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestEnnis – White – Tkachuk14:31
xG 1.01–0.48 (68%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Namestnikov – Brown12:01
xG 0.26–0.16 (62%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Ryan – Tierney – Duclair9:19
xG 0.42–0.36 (54%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Pageau – Sabourin – Abramov7:01
xG 0.26–0.48 (35%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Brannstrom13:46
xG 0.90–0.52 (64%)attempts 16–14goals 1–2
- Borowiecki – DeMelo14:16
xG 0.29–0.24 (55%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Chabot – Zaitsev20:44
xG 1.03–1.11 (48%)attempts 22–27goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).