Thu, Oct 10, 2019·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Washington Capitals 5, Nashville Predators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 19 | 37 | 110 | 526 |
| NSH | 113 | 19 | 416 | 638 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:17WSHLars EllerAssists: Garnet Hathaway, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 10:39NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Matt Duchene, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 4:46WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 7:37NSHRyan JohansenAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Calle Jarnkrok · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 12:28WSHTom WilsonSHAssists: Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P2 17:36WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 5:03NSHRyan JohansenPPAssists: Viktor Arvidsson, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.44 xG4–3
- P3 6:13NSHMatt DucheneAssists: Filip Forsberg, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–4
- P3 10:09WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–4
- P3 14:52NSHNick BoninoAssists: Colton Sissons, Austin Watson · Wrist, 0.19 xG5–5
- P3 15:20NSHMattias EkholmGWGAssists: Calle Jarnkrok · Slap, 0.03 xG5–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:09NSHCraig Smith: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:15WSHRadko Gudas: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:53WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:14NSHColton Sissons: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:03WSHGarnet Hathaway: Interference2 min
- P2 17:11NSHRoman Josi: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:15WSHJohn Carlson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:43NSHRyan Ellis: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom2:34
xG 0.05–0.10 (33%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Oshie – Kuznetsov – Vrana8:49
xG 0.25–0.39 (39%)attempts 9–14goals 1–2
- Leipsic – Stephenson – Hathaway8:59
xG 0.25–0.40 (39%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Wilson10:11
xG 0.13–0.29 (31%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Gudas3:22
xG 0.25–0.11 (68%)attempts 5–2goals 1–1
- Jensen – Siegenthaler2:16
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Gudas – Lewington6:07
xG 0.16–0.21 (43%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Johansen – Arvidsson11:13
xG 0.40–0.15 (72%)attempts 13–7goals 2–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Forsberg13:00
xG 0.63–0.39 (62%)attempts 17–10goals 2–1
- Bonino – Watson – Sissons9:32
xG 0.50–0.27 (65%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Turris – Smith – Carr9:01
xG 0.41–0.23 (64%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Fabbro18:27
xG 1.01–0.14 (88%)attempts 22–10goals 2–0
- Josi – Ellis17:22
xG 0.92–0.37 (71%)attempts 24–8goals 2–0
- Weber – Irwin7:18
xG 0.16–0.16 (51%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).