Thu, Oct 10, 2019·United Center, Chicago
San Jose Sharks 5, Chicago Blackhawks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 211 | 212 | 111 | 534 |
| CHI | 215 | 27 | 08 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:07CHIDominik KubalikAssists: Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 11:30SJSKevin LabancPPAssists: Evander Kane, Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 13:22CHIAndrew ShawAssists: Olli Maatta, Dylan Strome · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–2
- P1 19:43SJSPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Dylan Gambrell · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 9:27CHIAndrew ShawAssists: Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 10:00SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Dylan Gambrell · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–3
- P2 12:14CHIDylan StromeAssists: Patrick Kane, Erik Gustafsson · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–4
- P2 17:46SJSPatrick MarleauAssists: Timo Meier, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.29 xG4–4
- P3 4:47SJSBarclay GoodrowGWGAssists: Joe Thornton, Melker Karlsson · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:21CHIRyan Carpenter: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 18:26CHIPatrick Kane: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 19:59SJSBrenden Dillon: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:21CHIAndrew Shaw: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:12SJSBrent Burns: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Couture – Meier12:55
xG 0.94–0.46 (67%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Thornton – Goodrow – Karlsson3:40
xG 0.36–0.02 (95%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Thornton – Goodrow – Labanc2:07
xG 0.14–0.09 (61%)attempts 6–1goals 0–1
- Kane – Hertl – Labanc5:10
xG 0.16–0.11 (59%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Dillon5:52
xG 0.81–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–0goals 2–0
- Burns – Vlasic6:54
xG 0.12–0.02 (88%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Ferraro3:28
xG 0.23–0.20 (54%)attempts 5–3goals 1–2
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestSaad – Kubalik – Kampf4:30
xG 1.29–0.08 (94%)attempts 14–2goals 1–0
- Shaw – Strome – DeBrincat10:41
xG 0.65–0.36 (64%)attempts 7–7goals 2–0
- Toews – Kane – Nylander5:53
xG 0.06–0.23 (22%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Smith – Carpenter – Caggiula9:56
xG 0.01–0.18 (5%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Koekkoek11:42
xG 1.28–0.17 (89%)attempts 15–8goals 1–1
- Maatta – Gustafsson2:15
xG 0.47–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Keith – Murphy4:25
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).