Thu, Oct 10, 2019·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Calgary Flames 3, Dallas Stars 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 09 | 09 | 28 | 03 | 2 | 329 |
| DAL | 09 | 116 | 17 | 04 | 1 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 16:39DALJoel L'EsperanceAssists: Joel Hanley, Radek Faksa · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P3 0:09DALJamie BennPPAssists: Roope Hintz, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P3 2:49CGYElias LindholmPPAssists: Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 5:32CGYNoah HanifinAssists: Mikael Backlund, Matthew Tkachuk · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. DAL Tyler Seguin scored
- 2. CGY Sean Monahan scored
- 3. DAL Alexander Radulov stopped
- 4. CGY Matthew Tkachuk stopped
- 5. DAL Jamie Benn stopped
- 6. CGY Johnny Gaudreau scored
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:02CGYSam Bennett: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:18CGYJohnny Gaudreau: Holding2 min
- P2 4:37CGYTJ Brodie: Holding2 min
- P2 12:02CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 12:02DALBen Bishop: Embellishment2 min
- P2 18:39CGYJohnny Gaudreau: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:38DALJoe Pavelski: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 6:43DALJustin Dowling: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- OT 4:39CGYMark Giordano: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Mangiapane – Tkachuk12:56
xG 0.72–0.66 (52%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Frolik – Rieder – Jankowski4:22
xG 0.07–0.06 (54%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan10:14
xG 0.47–0.53 (47%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Lucic – Bennett – Ryan6:18
xG 0.05–0.11 (28%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Hanifin13:33
xG 0.44–0.10 (82%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Giordano – Andersson16:55
xG 0.82–0.74 (53%)attempts 19–21goals 0–1
- Hamonic – Brodie2:06
xG 0.05–0.09 (33%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDowling – Faksa – L'Esperance5:42
xG 0.13–0.04 (78%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Cogliano – Caamano – Gardner6:45
xG 0.13–0.12 (52%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Radulov – Benn – Seguin11:23
xG 0.59–0.78 (43%)attempts 16–14goals 0–1
- Pavelski – Janmark – Hintz9:44
xG 0.20–0.53 (27%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Lindell3:17
xG 0.11–0.02 (85%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Sekera – Heiskanen13:58
xG 0.56–0.47 (54%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Sekera – Klingberg2:27
xG 0.06–0.06 (47%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).