Thu, Oct 10, 2019·Pepsi Center, Denver
Boston Bruins 2, Colorado Avalanche 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 215 | 014 | 012 | 241 |
| COL | 113 | 111 | 212 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:58BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Brad Marchand, David Krejci · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 15:34BOSZdeno CharaAssists: David Pastrnak, Patrice Bergeron · Slap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P1 19:05COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–1
- P2 9:43COLPierre-Edouard BellemareAssists: Matt Calvert · Deflected, 0.20 xG2–2
- P3 12:54COLAndre BurakovskyGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 18:59COLGabriel LandeskogENAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Slap, 0.64 xG2–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 18:28BOSDanton Heinen: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 6:19BOSDavid Backes: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:41COLNikita Zadorov: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestWagner – Nordstrom – Kuraly8:07
xG 0.41–0.15 (73%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Krejci – Marchand – Pastrnak2:01
xG 0.24–0.01 (95%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak12:58
xG 0.55–0.49 (52%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Backes – Coyle – Heinen7:35
xG 0.19–0.22 (46%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKrug – Carlo11:56
xG 1.15–0.37 (76%)attempts 23–6goals 1–0
- Krug – Clifton2:38
xG 0.14–0.05 (75%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – Clifton13:16
xG 0.53–0.59 (48%)attempts 9–19goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Nieto – Jost10:49
xG 0.61–0.42 (59%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen14:07
xG 0.56–0.50 (53%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Calvert – Nichushkin – Bellemare7:52
xG 0.19–0.25 (44%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Kadri – Donskoi – Burakovsky10:24
xG 0.43–0.61 (41%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestZadorov – Makar11:52
xG 0.66–0.32 (68%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Zadorov – Girard3:59
xG 0.29–0.03 (89%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Barberio – Graves13:48
xG 0.75–0.70 (52%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).